I really could care less what the tabloids have to say about the social or private life of celebrities. For many years, I have bought none of the smaller sheets except the ‘Daily Mail’ for this very reason. Why do I care which rock star is getting his end away with which model? Who gives a toss if some film star drank too much champagne in a bar? Will it affect my life? Will it influence the war on terror? Unlikely.
So when columnists lambaste their colleagues who have focused on Ryan Giggs' battle for anonymity in his affair with Imogen Thomas, it can seem a very moralistic and fair attitude at a first glance. Indeed, the argument per-se is sound. It's the bigger picture that is cause for concern, for the revelation of Giggs' identity is a massive safeguard for free press and freedom of information in general.
First of all, let's remind ourselves how a super-injunction works. A celebrity - or other person with wealth stretching well beyond the average - gets involved in any situation that could be deemed "scandalous" in the press. He or she, aware of the potential outrage, contacts a law firm - most probably a prestigious one such as Shillings or Carter-Ruck - and instructs them to take action. The firm contacts a court and, if all goes to plan, the judge will rule that the client's right to privacy outweighs the public interest. (Our constitution grants the press the right to report anything that is "in the public interest"). Said law firm then send out threatening letters to the mainstream media groups warning them of nasty consequences should they breach the order. The solicitors sit back and watch their bank balance shoot up, the celebrity can relax.
The potential problem should be obvious by now. The term 'public interest' is highly ambiguous. In the case of a man cheating on his wife, it may be straightforward, but ‘Private Eye’ magazine recently highlighted some other cases where the judge ruled the "public interest" was outweighed. They included:
- The effect a sexual relationship between two senior employees had on a major global business during a time when it hit difficulties.
- How a newspaper columnist and bestselling author blocked his ex-wife from writing a book or talking to a journalist about him. (This would be unconstitutional in the US).
- A well known sportsman who had affairs with at least three other people was granted anonymity even though the court recognised that in doing so, the behaviour of completely innocent people would be called into question.
- Several cases involving alleged blackmail where there is no record that police were even informed.
So we see that in many cases, the interpretation of balance between privacy and public interest may well have been seriously flawed, and the press have been censored as a result. But in the case of Giggs, perhaps there was some justification for privacy, so maybe justice was served? Hardly.
Giggs' injunction was not imposed in the interest of fairness or justice, it was enforced because he could afford to censor the media. Your average citizen simply cannot afford to go around taking out injunctions, even if they did manage something newsworthy. In essence, super-injunctions create a divide between rich and lower classes. The logical conclusion to this divide being the right of the wealthy to censor the press.
But Giggs made a fatal mistake: he ignored the 'Streisland Effect'. When he was named (alongside Gordon Ramsey and others) as a super-injunction holder by a user on Twitter, he instructed his law firm to contact Twitter and obtain the details of those who named him, with the obvious intent of pursuing their punishment. In short, he was attempting to control what people say on social media sites.
Let's be clear about the precedent Giggs was aiming to set here. He was attempting to impose a rule that if you or I shared a piece of true gossip on Twitter, Facebook or any other social media network, you could face court action for it. It doesn't matter that it was true, it doesn't matter that everyone knew it anyway, you'd still be faced with crippling legal costs, at best.
That's why I greatly admire the Lib Dem MP John Hemming for quite rightly using our old constitutional guard of parliamentary privilege in naming Ryan. Moreover I despise John Bercow - who represents everything that is wrong with the Conservative Party - for his rebuttal. I also applaud every one of the 70,000 or so who immediately jumped to name Ryan on Twitter, sending a clear message that people won't be told what they can and can't say on a social network site.
Ryan Giggs is a great footballer with a great record and lots of respect. Had he simply appeared in public with his wife and attempted to repair the damage he'd done, the "scandal" would be old news before long. Instead he choose to contribute to massive censorship and attempted bullying of internet users. In consequence he magnified knowledge of his affair tenfold. That he failed to succeeded in his attack on Twitter is something we should all be grateful for.
-
Friday, 27 May 2011
Thursday, 17 March 2011
On nuclear energy and the crisis in Japan
In keeping with my tendency to take on challenges, I now want to try and set the record straight regarding nuclear fuel, nuclear energy and the uproar that has surrounded it following the start of the ongoing crisis in Japan.
It almost goes without saying that the events in Japan were truly tragic, and I can only begin to imagine the pain felt by the Japanese people. My heart goes out to all who have suffered.
When it seemed that the tsunami had run its deadly course, the Japanese people must have begun to feel some relief, only to be struck by the nuclear plant explosions and enter a new streak of fear. That agony has been exploited by many in other countries, seeking to push their own agendas and gain under a mask of sympathy or pseudo-smugness. Aphisit Vejajiva, PM of Thailand, announced he had "always" opposed nuclear energy even before the crisis, though strangely it was not something he'd ever discussed before. Angela Merkel stated she would not be extending the life of expired nuclear reactors in Germany that were already de-commissioned anyway. A "green" campaigner in Australia said the accident was evidence that: " ..."when you pull the plug on reactors, they potentially lose control."
It's sad to see people with the temerity to spout such selfish and ignorant nonsense in the face of other's suffering, but even in the absence of such pain, the debate on nuclear energy is one driven by arrogance and received wisdom. The word "nuclear" is inextricably joined up with the word "bomb" in the psyche of most humans and conjures up images of explosions (duh), men in radiation suits and orange, yellow or green signs, perhaps we all have an image of a certain apocalyptic video game in mind, too. The reality is different.
Nuclear energy is the only truly viable, cost effective and clean form of fuel we currently are aware of. The events in Japan are yet to be fully understood but have certainly been misrepresented and the dangers of nuclear energy are vastly misunderstood. It's now time to understand the basics of nuclear energy nuclear energy as concisely as possible.
What is nuclear energy and how does it work?
An amazingly obvious and simple question, yet one I'll bet many anti-nuclear activists have little or no knowledge of. Don't believe me? Check for yourself, grab one of the most outspoken and ask them to give a scientific, factual description of the very basic mechanisms of nuclear reaction.
Nuclear energy usually uses Uranium-235, because this type produces spontaneous fission under the right conditions i.e. being hit with neutrons. When hit, the uranium will release other neutrons, because an atom has split. This all happens quicker than the blink of an eye and generates tremendous energy. To stop an excess of chain reactions (i.e. thrown of particles hitting other particles and so on) control rods are used to absorb excess neutons and regulate temperature.
The whole process takes place in an environment very similar to a fossil fuel plant. Two separate bands of water are in flow around the reactor unit. One is kept around the uranium unit itself and is kept under high pressure to void boiling even at very high temperatures, the other never touches the first water unit but feeds off its heat, and uses that steam to power a motor that generates the electricity. Hardly sounds like the stuff of apocalyptic nightmares, eh?
The environment
The exact structure of nuclear buildings vary according to age. New plants have the reactors themselves surrounded by steel casing, concrete reinforcing (usually several feet thick), steel reinforcement rods and typically several more layers atop this. Many plants are built underground. In short - they are more protective than a president's bunker. The case in Japan is an absolute "worst case" scenario of a combination of earthquake, tsunami, fire and explosion in an aging plant and as we will see, there is no evidence of any serious damage yet.
The waste
Many anti-nuclear campaigners (they generally label themselves as such, without the "energy' tag as that might pin them down to specific detail or force them to acquire knowledge of their subject) cite concerns over nuclear waste, its transport and threats of radiation as their main concern.
The waste produced during nuclear fission is ionising radiation from uranium. Although Uranium-235 can be recycled, it usually isn't. Instead it is kept in seclusion until its radioactivity levels decrease, then it is transported in specially designed tanks to a disposal point. In the USA, these tanks have covered over 1.7 million miles without a single accident. Safety tests in the US have included a deliberate collision with a flaming vehicle at a speed of 150mph. The unit was completely unharmed. Indeed, there are no reported accidents caused by nuclear waste transportation.
The disaster in Japan and past events
In short, 3 Mile Island was actually a very minor incident that resulted in no hospitalisations. Chernobyl was a far bigger disaster, caused by Soviet-era reactors and operative incompetence. The design of the plant was very different to modern plats. To cite the latter incident as an argument against nuclear energy is like citing the Titanic as an argument against sea travel.
The ongoing crisis at Fukushima cannot yet be fully understood by anyone, which is why it is wrong for so many people to begin discussing it as if they have knowledge of the facts What is needed at present is a regularly updates log of actual events, combined with a pool of knowledge from qualified personnel about the structure and science in question, followed by a thorough investigation. The Nuclear Energy Institute is doing just this. Its latest post concerns the fire at the reactor and the possible reasons why a hydrogen leak has occurred. This fact sheet explains the known information.
But why?
Known of this matters a jolt if nuclear energy is not the best source of energy for the future, but it is. It is very safe, remarkably efficient, clean and cost effective. No others source comes close except hydro-energy, for which we have yet to develop a cost effective system. Forget solar energy which cannot power the lights in a small house. Forget wind energy, for which an eight year old should be able to spot the flaws in the system. Fossil fuels are finite and bio-fuels are often the higher pollutants.
Any independent, scientifically minded and balanced investigation must surely conclude that nuclear energy is the way forward. Yes, it has dangers just like any fuel system - natural gas has caused tragic deaths this year, coal mining causes more deaths per year on average than Chernobyl - but with the massive benefits of modern technology we finally have a chance to utilise a system that could play big part in preserving Earth and its environment for the future. It would be truly cruel to exploit the tragic deaths in Japan as an excuse to argue ignorantly, emotionally and bigotedly against it.
Sources and resources:
Nuclear Energy Institute
World Nuclear Association
Australian Nuclear Science and Technology
How stuff works - nuclear power
Radiation Answers
International Atomic Energy Agency
It almost goes without saying that the events in Japan were truly tragic, and I can only begin to imagine the pain felt by the Japanese people. My heart goes out to all who have suffered.
When it seemed that the tsunami had run its deadly course, the Japanese people must have begun to feel some relief, only to be struck by the nuclear plant explosions and enter a new streak of fear. That agony has been exploited by many in other countries, seeking to push their own agendas and gain under a mask of sympathy or pseudo-smugness. Aphisit Vejajiva, PM of Thailand, announced he had "always" opposed nuclear energy even before the crisis, though strangely it was not something he'd ever discussed before. Angela Merkel stated she would not be extending the life of expired nuclear reactors in Germany that were already de-commissioned anyway. A "green" campaigner in Australia said the accident was evidence that: " ..."when you pull the plug on reactors, they potentially lose control."
It's sad to see people with the temerity to spout such selfish and ignorant nonsense in the face of other's suffering, but even in the absence of such pain, the debate on nuclear energy is one driven by arrogance and received wisdom. The word "nuclear" is inextricably joined up with the word "bomb" in the psyche of most humans and conjures up images of explosions (duh), men in radiation suits and orange, yellow or green signs, perhaps we all have an image of a certain apocalyptic video game in mind, too. The reality is different.
Nuclear energy is the only truly viable, cost effective and clean form of fuel we currently are aware of. The events in Japan are yet to be fully understood but have certainly been misrepresented and the dangers of nuclear energy are vastly misunderstood. It's now time to understand the basics of nuclear energy nuclear energy as concisely as possible.
What is nuclear energy and how does it work?
An amazingly obvious and simple question, yet one I'll bet many anti-nuclear activists have little or no knowledge of. Don't believe me? Check for yourself, grab one of the most outspoken and ask them to give a scientific, factual description of the very basic mechanisms of nuclear reaction.
Nuclear energy usually uses Uranium-235, because this type produces spontaneous fission under the right conditions i.e. being hit with neutrons. When hit, the uranium will release other neutrons, because an atom has split. This all happens quicker than the blink of an eye and generates tremendous energy. To stop an excess of chain reactions (i.e. thrown of particles hitting other particles and so on) control rods are used to absorb excess neutons and regulate temperature.
The whole process takes place in an environment very similar to a fossil fuel plant. Two separate bands of water are in flow around the reactor unit. One is kept around the uranium unit itself and is kept under high pressure to void boiling even at very high temperatures, the other never touches the first water unit but feeds off its heat, and uses that steam to power a motor that generates the electricity. Hardly sounds like the stuff of apocalyptic nightmares, eh?
The environment
The exact structure of nuclear buildings vary according to age. New plants have the reactors themselves surrounded by steel casing, concrete reinforcing (usually several feet thick), steel reinforcement rods and typically several more layers atop this. Many plants are built underground. In short - they are more protective than a president's bunker. The case in Japan is an absolute "worst case" scenario of a combination of earthquake, tsunami, fire and explosion in an aging plant and as we will see, there is no evidence of any serious damage yet.
The waste
Many anti-nuclear campaigners (they generally label themselves as such, without the "energy' tag as that might pin them down to specific detail or force them to acquire knowledge of their subject) cite concerns over nuclear waste, its transport and threats of radiation as their main concern.
The waste produced during nuclear fission is ionising radiation from uranium. Although Uranium-235 can be recycled, it usually isn't. Instead it is kept in seclusion until its radioactivity levels decrease, then it is transported in specially designed tanks to a disposal point. In the USA, these tanks have covered over 1.7 million miles without a single accident. Safety tests in the US have included a deliberate collision with a flaming vehicle at a speed of 150mph. The unit was completely unharmed. Indeed, there are no reported accidents caused by nuclear waste transportation.
The disaster in Japan and past events
In short, 3 Mile Island was actually a very minor incident that resulted in no hospitalisations. Chernobyl was a far bigger disaster, caused by Soviet-era reactors and operative incompetence. The design of the plant was very different to modern plats. To cite the latter incident as an argument against nuclear energy is like citing the Titanic as an argument against sea travel.
 |
| www.nei.org |
But why?
Known of this matters a jolt if nuclear energy is not the best source of energy for the future, but it is. It is very safe, remarkably efficient, clean and cost effective. No others source comes close except hydro-energy, for which we have yet to develop a cost effective system. Forget solar energy which cannot power the lights in a small house. Forget wind energy, for which an eight year old should be able to spot the flaws in the system. Fossil fuels are finite and bio-fuels are often the higher pollutants.
Any independent, scientifically minded and balanced investigation must surely conclude that nuclear energy is the way forward. Yes, it has dangers just like any fuel system - natural gas has caused tragic deaths this year, coal mining causes more deaths per year on average than Chernobyl - but with the massive benefits of modern technology we finally have a chance to utilise a system that could play big part in preserving Earth and its environment for the future. It would be truly cruel to exploit the tragic deaths in Japan as an excuse to argue ignorantly, emotionally and bigotedly against it.
Sources and resources:
Nuclear Energy Institute
World Nuclear Association
Australian Nuclear Science and Technology
How stuff works - nuclear power
Radiation Answers
International Atomic Energy Agency
Monday, 31 January 2011
Ghost lab or ghost sham?
Sam is a student of mine. He's the son of two medical doctors and when other kids are playing with toys or blowing their pals to pieces on some online computer game, Sam is usually busy reading about the latest advances in science. At the age of nine, this boy can name all the layers of the atmosphere (how many of us can do that?), explain the components of a molecule or describe the differences between an amphibian and a fish, all in a foreign language. You see where I'm going here - Sam is a genius.
One recent morning I was discussing a fairy tale with the class. The topic of magic came up. "Do you believe in magic?"; I asked the class. Some of the kids said "yes", which will be no surprise to those who read my previous article. Sam said "no". "What about ghosts Sam, do you believe in them?" I ask; "Sometimes" says Sam. "Really? I'm surprised. Why do you believe in them?" I ask; "Because I saw something on the TV about them" says Sam. My heart sank. I already knew the answer to my next question but I had to check: "What show was it Sam?" I ask; "Ghost Lab" he replies.
For the uninitiated, "Ghost Lab" is a regular show that airs on National Geographic (in Asia, anyway) that purports to document a team touring the United States and examining familiar "haunted" areas with a variety of equipment and a mobile lab. The obvious implication being that it's all done scientifically.
The problem as I see it is that the show does nothing of the sort. From the very first episode there's a spin being put on events that would make a politician envious. We're shown a clip from Gettysburg supposedly taken by 'Ghost Lab' member Brad, of a group in military dress walking across a field. We're then told in the most sensational terms that the group just "disappeared" in broad daylight! How frightening! What we're not told is that the area of Gettysburg is - for obvious reasons - famous for re-enactment groups acting out old American battles. Oh, and the actual part where the mysterious group "disappear" just happened to be missed off of the film cut, the cameraman was busy running after the group you see, because he was so far away to begin with.
That piece of nonsense really sets the tone for the whole series where minor or non-events are treated as climaxes. A door opening "by itself" in a concert hall is accompanied by lots of screaming and is edited in with dramatic music. The "Ghost Lab" team's scientific analysis of the whole thing is that: "The door was shut hard and there's no breeze here".
Ghostly EVP voices are frequently played back to the camera. They're presented as fact, yet are so indecipherable that the viewer is given subtitles to make sure the ghost's message is clear. Again, the grand sum of scientific analysis offered is one person trying to recreate the voice message. When the volume level is found to be different, that's offered as proof that it was a spirit doing it the first time.
Both the aforementioned events happened in episode one and at the end of the investigation the team leader tells us the building is: "definitely haunted". His evidence? I just gave it to you.
The series continues in the same vein. In episode three - shot in some old 'wild west' town - a photo taken in a suitably notorious area was found to display a shadow. The team leader's immediate response was: "Hmmm....perhaps we should get this analaysed by Joe Nickell or some other expert so we can rule out natural phenomena before jumping to conclusions." No, I'm kidding of course, his real response was: "That's a shadow person right there!" jumping for joy as he did so. I could give further examples of the way it's all spun but I think you get the picture.
What gets my back up about all this is not that it's so cheesy. I understand TV shows need viewers and a truly scientific approach may have less appeal, but it's all presented so deceptively. It's not just my genius but young student Sam who has been taken in by this, it's a whole group of young people. I recently tried debating with a few fans of the show on Facebook and their defence of their favourite show was truly passionate. I almost felt mean for trying to dissuade them.
Those who value truly scientific principles and wish to peruse a better way to perform research than the 'Ghost Lab' crew could do worse than consult a published article on the Rochester University website (I'll link to it below) that explains how we can truly collect, measure, present and validate data in all types of scientific research.
One of the rules is that we should aim for a series of experiments. If we catch a "shadow person" on camera once, can we do it again, ever? If not, how does this contribute to scientific research? Another vital area is "controlled variables". In our 'Ghost Lab' show, a controlled variable might be something as basic as a door, for example. Keeping it locked, inaccessible and observed would make it much more impressive when it allegedly opens "by itself". Certainly it would be more convincing to scientists than simply stating "there's no breeze here".
One last rule discussed in the article and one I always keep as my own golden rule is also known as 'Occam's Razor'. It states: "Things need not be multiplied beyond necessity". What this means of course is that when we have a multitude of explanations for an event or occurrence, we should always choose the one that requires the least amount of assumptions and stays the closest to what we know to be true. So when a "shadow person" appears on a photograph, does a good scientist immediately conclude "Shadow person" - for which there exists zero evidence - or a probable error in the camera lens - an event that happens daily? When presented with creaky audio that may have a faint voice on it , does a good scientist first try to rule out living people or other natural noises, or immediately conclude that dead people are communicating via audio recorders with non-sequitur messages?
Again, I could go on but I'm sure you get the picture. Perhaps some readers could find an enjoyable hobby in reading the article and then watching the show to see how the whole team completely ignore scientific principles. All I ask in return for introducing such a fun filled thirty minutes is that the reader ensures any young viewers accompanying them are shown what nonsense it all is.
Rochester University's guide to the scientific method:
http://teacher.pas.rochester.edu/phy_labs/appendixe/appendixe.html
More on 'Occam's Razor':
http://www.skepdic.com/occam.html
One recent morning I was discussing a fairy tale with the class. The topic of magic came up. "Do you believe in magic?"; I asked the class. Some of the kids said "yes", which will be no surprise to those who read my previous article. Sam said "no". "What about ghosts Sam, do you believe in them?" I ask; "Sometimes" says Sam. "Really? I'm surprised. Why do you believe in them?" I ask; "Because I saw something on the TV about them" says Sam. My heart sank. I already knew the answer to my next question but I had to check: "What show was it Sam?" I ask; "Ghost Lab" he replies.
For the uninitiated, "Ghost Lab" is a regular show that airs on National Geographic (in Asia, anyway) that purports to document a team touring the United States and examining familiar "haunted" areas with a variety of equipment and a mobile lab. The obvious implication being that it's all done scientifically.
The problem as I see it is that the show does nothing of the sort. From the very first episode there's a spin being put on events that would make a politician envious. We're shown a clip from Gettysburg supposedly taken by 'Ghost Lab' member Brad, of a group in military dress walking across a field. We're then told in the most sensational terms that the group just "disappeared" in broad daylight! How frightening! What we're not told is that the area of Gettysburg is - for obvious reasons - famous for re-enactment groups acting out old American battles. Oh, and the actual part where the mysterious group "disappear" just happened to be missed off of the film cut, the cameraman was busy running after the group you see, because he was so far away to begin with.
That piece of nonsense really sets the tone for the whole series where minor or non-events are treated as climaxes. A door opening "by itself" in a concert hall is accompanied by lots of screaming and is edited in with dramatic music. The "Ghost Lab" team's scientific analysis of the whole thing is that: "The door was shut hard and there's no breeze here".
Ghostly EVP voices are frequently played back to the camera. They're presented as fact, yet are so indecipherable that the viewer is given subtitles to make sure the ghost's message is clear. Again, the grand sum of scientific analysis offered is one person trying to recreate the voice message. When the volume level is found to be different, that's offered as proof that it was a spirit doing it the first time.
Both the aforementioned events happened in episode one and at the end of the investigation the team leader tells us the building is: "definitely haunted". His evidence? I just gave it to you.
The series continues in the same vein. In episode three - shot in some old 'wild west' town - a photo taken in a suitably notorious area was found to display a shadow. The team leader's immediate response was: "Hmmm....perhaps we should get this analaysed by Joe Nickell or some other expert so we can rule out natural phenomena before jumping to conclusions." No, I'm kidding of course, his real response was: "That's a shadow person right there!" jumping for joy as he did so. I could give further examples of the way it's all spun but I think you get the picture.
What gets my back up about all this is not that it's so cheesy. I understand TV shows need viewers and a truly scientific approach may have less appeal, but it's all presented so deceptively. It's not just my genius but young student Sam who has been taken in by this, it's a whole group of young people. I recently tried debating with a few fans of the show on Facebook and their defence of their favourite show was truly passionate. I almost felt mean for trying to dissuade them.
Those who value truly scientific principles and wish to peruse a better way to perform research than the 'Ghost Lab' crew could do worse than consult a published article on the Rochester University website (I'll link to it below) that explains how we can truly collect, measure, present and validate data in all types of scientific research.
One of the rules is that we should aim for a series of experiments. If we catch a "shadow person" on camera once, can we do it again, ever? If not, how does this contribute to scientific research? Another vital area is "controlled variables". In our 'Ghost Lab' show, a controlled variable might be something as basic as a door, for example. Keeping it locked, inaccessible and observed would make it much more impressive when it allegedly opens "by itself". Certainly it would be more convincing to scientists than simply stating "there's no breeze here".
One last rule discussed in the article and one I always keep as my own golden rule is also known as 'Occam's Razor'. It states: "Things need not be multiplied beyond necessity". What this means of course is that when we have a multitude of explanations for an event or occurrence, we should always choose the one that requires the least amount of assumptions and stays the closest to what we know to be true. So when a "shadow person" appears on a photograph, does a good scientist immediately conclude "Shadow person" - for which there exists zero evidence - or a probable error in the camera lens - an event that happens daily? When presented with creaky audio that may have a faint voice on it , does a good scientist first try to rule out living people or other natural noises, or immediately conclude that dead people are communicating via audio recorders with non-sequitur messages?
Again, I could go on but I'm sure you get the picture. Perhaps some readers could find an enjoyable hobby in reading the article and then watching the show to see how the whole team completely ignore scientific principles. All I ask in return for introducing such a fun filled thirty minutes is that the reader ensures any young viewers accompanying them are shown what nonsense it all is.
Rochester University's guide to the scientific method:
http://teacher.pas.rochester.edu/phy_labs/appendixe/appendixe.html
More on 'Occam's Razor':
http://www.skepdic.com/occam.html
Saturday, 15 January 2011
The Greenfyre strikes back
Greenfyre - the man who "doesn't debate" - does not take criticism as well as he hands it out and has responded to the deconstruction in my previous post. Unlike Greenfyre, I allow people right of criticism so his original comments are welcome and untouched.
Now let's respond. My previous article was long so I'll make this rebuttal as quick as possible.
Any "thinking person" would see that I had made several links in the article. Since GF omits to mention what the "specific" is (irony, anyone?) this is a pretty appalling response.
GF says....
Here is the definition from http://philosophy.lander.edu as I specifically linked to in the article:
*******************
*******************
Let's look at the second basic pattern: "Statement not-p is unproved..." "Santa Claus does not exist" is an unproven statement, because a negative cannot be proven. We can show it's very unlikely that he exists and it would be impossible for him to visit every home in one night, but we cannot categorically prove he doesn't exist.
"The current global warming is not entirely due to anthropogenic activity" is an almost identical premise. The only exception being that basic theories of heat transfer and radiative forcing make it likely that some of the heating is being accelerated and slightly exacerbated due to man's activity. However the premise remains the same, it's impossible to prove that all the heating is not due to us humans.
So when it's pointed out that climate science is a new science, unbelievably complex and not yet understood fully by anyone, so we should be careful about abusing other opinions, then how is the argument ad Ignorantiam an acceptable response? It's not. It's simply saying: "I'm right, because you can't prove me wrong".
There's one more area I should be more clear about. In my article I mentioned:
The actual wording of GF's comment policy is:
In short: "I'll censor anyone who disagrees or disputes with me". Notice what the final words link to; the index already discussed that features "Skeptic Vs Science" arguments. Those "skeptic" arguments very loosely and sloppily cover arguments from sunspots and solar activity as discussed by astrophysicist Piers Corbyn, a dismissal of the clear growth of Antarctica's sea ice as discussed by Syun-Ichi Akasofu. Perhaps most ludicrously of all it rejects the overwhelming evidence that the Medieval Warming Period was warmer than today. The lie to this is given by a plenitude of papers as disseminated by the Idso family, all respected scientists.
That's just three examples. So by describing arguments advanced by such people as "gibberish" seems a bit rich for an NGO. Minority? Maybe. Gibberish? Hardly. And apart from some bluster, we've now dealt with the full extent of GF's response. Perhaps now it's becoming clearer why he "won't debate".
Now let's respond. My previous article was long so I'll make this rebuttal as quick as possible.
GF says....
i) In that whole long screed you can't accurately quote & link a single specific [sic] to substantiate any of your claims ... that tells any thinking person all they need to know;
Any "thinking person" would see that I had made several links in the article. Since GF omits to mention what the "specific" is (irony, anyone?) this is a pretty appalling response.
GF says....
ii) You need to look up "argumentum ad ignorantiam", you clearly do not understand it;
Here is the definition from http://philosophy.lander.edu as I specifically linked to in the article:
*******************
| Argumentum ad Ignorantiam: (appeal to ignorance) the fallacy that a proposition is true simply on the basis that it has not been proved false or that it is false simply because it has not been proved true. This error in reasoning is often expressed with influential rhetoric. | ||||
| A. The informal structure has two basic patterns: | ||||
| Statement p is unproved. Not-p is true. |
Statement not-p is unproved. p is true. | |||
Let's look at the second basic pattern: "Statement not-p is unproved..." "Santa Claus does not exist" is an unproven statement, because a negative cannot be proven. We can show it's very unlikely that he exists and it would be impossible for him to visit every home in one night, but we cannot categorically prove he doesn't exist.
"The current global warming is not entirely due to anthropogenic activity" is an almost identical premise. The only exception being that basic theories of heat transfer and radiative forcing make it likely that some of the heating is being accelerated and slightly exacerbated due to man's activity. However the premise remains the same, it's impossible to prove that all the heating is not due to us humans.
So when it's pointed out that climate science is a new science, unbelievably complex and not yet understood fully by anyone, so we should be careful about abusing other opinions, then how is the argument ad Ignorantiam an acceptable response? It's not. It's simply saying: "I'm right, because you can't prove me wrong".
There's one more area I should be more clear about. In my article I mentioned:
His comment policy warns us that any "gibberish" will be deleted. His idea of "gibberish" is quite broad of course and includes theories relating to Climate Change papered by highly qualified scientists.
The actual wording of GF's comment policy is:
Comments that are not relevant to the post that they appear under or the evolving discussion will simply be moved or deleted, as will links to Denier spam known to be scientific gibberish
In short: "I'll censor anyone who disagrees or disputes with me". Notice what the final words link to; the index already discussed that features "Skeptic Vs Science" arguments. Those "skeptic" arguments very loosely and sloppily cover arguments from sunspots and solar activity as discussed by astrophysicist Piers Corbyn, a dismissal of the clear growth of Antarctica's sea ice as discussed by Syun-Ichi Akasofu. Perhaps most ludicrously of all it rejects the overwhelming evidence that the Medieval Warming Period was warmer than today. The lie to this is given by a plenitude of papers as disseminated by the Idso family, all respected scientists.
That's just three examples. So by describing arguments advanced by such people as "gibberish" seems a bit rich for an NGO. Minority? Maybe. Gibberish? Hardly. And apart from some bluster, we've now dealt with the full extent of GF's response. Perhaps now it's becoming clearer why he "won't debate".
Wednesday, 12 January 2011
Dousing a damp Greenfyre - responding to personal criticism by Mike Kaulbars
 |
| http://www.demotivation.us |
You can learn a lot about a person from watching them argue. When feelings or values are questioned is when our words are most unguarded. Even the internet offers no escape, as we are about to see in our special little case study. I hope we may learn something about dealing with aggressive people in debate, use or misuse of logical arguments and climate change science on the way. Heck we might even get a glimpse at human nature and the art of misdirection thrown in somewhere, too.
How will we achieve this? By my deconstruction and rebuttal of a blog called Greenfyre, run by Mike Kaulbars. There's nothing really special about the blog in terms of popularity, content or design. In fact, it's very much a blog's version of Nicholas Cage; great things may be expected but mediocrity is always delivered. So why bother? Well, it's become personal. Mike has been abusive to me several times of late because I've challenged him to a debate on a neutral forum of his choice. He's sidestepped all those challenges and continued his abuse and censorship of my comments. That's his prerogative. This article is mine.
Yet in this petty squabble we can see a far bigger and more positive picture. Greenfyre's blog is very typical of environmentalists and their attitude to Climate Change and those who dissent with mainstream opinion. Every time you read the name "Greenfyre" in this article, don't think of one dull blog, think of the huge number of people around the world who hold a very similar point of view and reason in a similar way. There's a lot of insight and learning to be had if we look for it. However, before we start I should mention my own attitude to the Climate Change debate is briefly summarised here.
There are three issues I want to deal with here. One, the blog itself: its tone, its content and the manner of the blogger. Next is use of the 'denier' tag. Finally we'll analyse the logical constructions and method of debate used. At the end of this piece I'll link to some excellent sites that offer a wealth of scientific information on climate change. That will summarise my viewpoints on the science better than I could do myself.
The Greenfyre blog - alarmism at its best
Lest I make the debate more personal than needed, the easiest way for anyone to get a feel for Mike's blog (I'll call him "Greenfyre" or "GF" from now on for the same reason) is to take a look at the introductory page and browse around a little. It shouldn't take long for the picture to form.
When I first encountered GF's blog I asked an innocent question and was told by GF that I was "humiliating myself" along with some other niceties. More recently when I requested a debate, GF - the man who runs an entire blog based around argument - told me he "doesn't debate".
To his credit, GF is honest about the aggressive and bellicose nature of his blog. It's exactly what he states it is - a collection of arguments and responses. But of course there are two basic types of argument - rational or hysterical. The two are not mutually exclusive but the latter often occurs without the former. Rational argument is done calmly, with logic and a clear mind. Hysterical argument is usually aggressive - peppered with insults and anger and is designed merely to silence the opponent, rather than decide who is right.
Looking at GF's "tag cloud" in the right hand column of his blog tells us immediately what type of argument we are looking at. Three forms of the word "denier" make up the biggest clouds along with sensationalisms like "exposing deniers" and "climate justice" (whatever that means). A quick scan of articles draws a similar conclusion. Of his five most recent articles, three have nothing whatsoever to do with science. Indeed, two of them are simply pseudo-tutorials about how to infer someone who disagrees with his arguments is akin to a Nazi, another is simply a mockery of one person. The other two cover little science.
His comment policy warns us that any "gibberish" will be deleted. His idea of "gibberish" is quite broad of course and includes theories relating to Climate Change papered by highly qualified scientists.
There is a science section with a variety of links, but none of the links are authored by Mike and it is clearly a side-issue. Is such an approach productive? Would the unsure, the intelligent layman, the inquisitive or the shy be persuaded to follow and concur with the scientific beliefs of such a person? If not, how is the blog useful?
That's the problem when dealing in nothing but polemics. It's hard to keep rational when all you're doing is fighting with people. GF - like so many others - has become fanatically sure he's right. Once a person reaches that stage, reason and facts challenging that belief become objects of anger or even hatred. Science is not immune to such emotions. The Roman Inquisition were sure they had science on their side when they sentenced Giordano Bruno to death for suggesting The Universe was infinite.
The "Denier" tag
Denier: A person who denies http://www.yourdictionary.com/denier
The 'Denier' tag is used - usually lazily and indiscriminately- by left wing and/or environmentalists against anyone who dissents with their views on climate change. The reason why such a label has been chosen should be obvious. The word has two implications. The first one is being in the wrong, as a person who 'denies' something usually has to defend themself against something and is usually placed on the defensive. The second, more subtle but powerful implication is the obvious association that I don't even need to specify.
When you hear the word, what are the pictures that follow? It's loved by alarmists for this reason. Its undertones are strong, obvious and sinister yet cannot be proven, in the same way it can't be proven that FIFA took a bung in their recent World Cup vote.
But the disgraceful tag isn't just immoral, it's plain wrong. What is it that "deniers" actually deny? That climate is changing? Of course not, climate is always changing. That it's getting hotter? Even leading sceptic Lord Monckton regularly publishes a report showing global temperatures, which are, of course, increasing. Do they deny that it's getting hotter because of humans? I've yet to find a single credible person who believes that anthropogenic activity does not play a single part in recent warming.
So how do those who use the "denier" designation get away with it then? Most of them don't. Challenge them on their meaning and they cannot take the argument as far as we've just taken it in the last paragraph. But a few will claim that "deniers" means anyone who disagrees with the mainstream viewpoint on global warming. Aha! So are we getting somewhere now? Not really.
The "mainstream" opinion on global warming is engineered by the IPCC (I've discussed them before), a panel of scientists who pool their ideas together. But IPCC members rarely agree on the exact amount of warming or exactly how responsible humans are for it, or any of the other statistics in their reports. Their reported estimates are a compromise of opinion. So what "deniers" actually dare to dispute is not the single viewpoint of any single human but a very broad range of compromised statistics from a group of people who also agree to being unsure.
So what is it that 'deniers' are 'denying'? Apparently we are denying that sea levels will probably rise by 18 to 59 centimeters this century (as the IPCC warn). So if your own forecast is 17 centimeters, you're a denier. Not a "dissenter", a "disagreer", a "contrarian" or a "rebel", just an evil "denier". Likewise, if you believe that average temperatures will rise by 1.0 degrees before 2100, you're a Nazi. But if you believe the rise will be 1.1 - 6.4 degrees, that's OK, you're inside the IPCC estimate, you're one of the good guys!
Oh and it doesn't matter that the IPCC have been wrong so many times before. ( one, two , three random examples. ) That's irrelevant propaganda, probably thrown out there by Nazis.
The use of logic and debate
As we've already seen, Greenfyre's blog is mainly based around polemics and argument rather than learning or informing people. But polemics and arguments can be deceptive and psychologically cogent when structured carefully.
We all know a good example of this - the last word. How many of us can really deny (no pun intended) that we feel better when we get the last word in an argument? It takes a strong person to resist such a temptation. In the case of science, it shouldn't really matter what order the facts come in, but the way they are presented can influence people.
This is why GF links to an ostensibly neutral website that presents all the arguments from "Skeptics" (credit at least for avoiding the cheap-shot 'denier' tag) and then presenting the "science" as a response. Note that by using the term "science" on one side, it implies the 'skeptic" is not using science. In all 139 arguments, the skeptic' line is given first and the "science" second. This gives a strong impression that all "skeptic" lines have been answered and dealt with. That is not true, nor is it how a real debate works.
In a real debate, parties take turns to speak, analyse the opponent's arguments, point out flaws or faults in their argument and reinforce their own angle. If this can't be done, then an honest person should reconsider their own position.
A look at the list of arguments GF links to is a worry. The third argument - the 97% myth - has been proven as deception. The second argument is aimed at someone who denies humans cause any warming, and we've established how rare they are. The first argument - the sun is causing warming - is "debunked" by one single graph. One single graph to discuss a hugely complex, incredibly important and powerful topic.
I can't go through every listed argument but you get the point. Important issues are swept away simply by the way they are presented; as not having 'the last word'. This is a big deal, because it will heavily influence causal readers, the easily mislead and researchers.
GF is also aware of the power of the 'last word' and the way arguments are presented, which is why he "fisks" the comments of anyone and everyone who disagrees with him. 'Fisking' means taking apart a person's argument line by line and responding to it. This is a commonplace and perfectly fair tactic and I do it myself. However GF actually does it with the person's original comments, the online equivalent of speaking over someone. It's not only rude, it's also prejudicing how the person comes across to other people. A similar tactic to the Scientologist method of publicly smearing anyone whom they think is about to speak out against them. Likewise, Greenfyre Mike has a "Dunce's Corner" for comments "too stupid to reply to". Needless to say, he is judge and jury about who gets sent there.
All these antics serve to make GF or anyone else feel secure. By always having the last word, they feel nobody can threaten their belief system and nobody can persuade others that their viewpoint is wrong either. It's not how honest science works, though.
Use of logical arguments, and lack thereof
It's not just back and forth argument that can be misued in scientific discussion. Logical arguments can be used and abused in such circles and their effect can be just as powerful as the 'last word' psychology, especially when the recipient or target is unaware of what is happening. Let's take a look at a few examples....
The 'denier' tag is of course, ad-hominem attack. This has become so obvious that GF now uses this as a double bluff, claiming that anyone who uses the term doesn't know what it means.
Further arguments come into play. Clearly GF is playing the "Argument By Vehemence". People don't like being insulted and many will shy away from argument if they believe it will happen.
We have yet more examples on the field of play. On one occasion I pointed out to Mike that Climate Science is new, incredibly complex and as such nowhere near fully understood. My point being that in such circumstances he could or should not label people as deniers for disagreeing with his opinions. He responded (well, fisked actually) that I was using argumentum ad ignorantiam, his inference suggesting something cannot be true because we don't understand it. Actually that's a poor use of the argument, a better explanation of it is here.
The irony of course is that the argument from ignorance is coming from the Greenfyre. Because Climate Science is so complex, there really is nobody who can lay claim to having all the knowledge or all the facts about what will happen. And therefore, since GF's arguments cannot be disproven, they must be true!
As with every other section, I could give further examples but you surely get the picture. For a good breakdown of logical fallacies, go here. When you see one being used, simply call it out.
Conclusion
In this article we've seen many of the ways that we can be deceived, mislead, manipulated or just plain bullied. We've also seen how some logical arguments can be used or misused. Simply knowing the techniques that some of these nasty aims can be achieved is often enough to defend against them.
But none of us are perfect. We're often better at deciding or misleading ourselves than anyone else. If readers - including Greenfyre - feel that I've been unfair or wrong in any of my conclusions, then my offer offer of a debate or simply a discussion still stands. In the meantime however, my own verdict is that Greenfyre may well have some solid scientific arguments but they are lost in the shrill voice of his angry rants. In that, we may be able to see the many faults of a person so convinced they are right.
Links:
Sites that generally disagree with IPCC opinion:
www.co2science.org - contains details of hundreds of peer reviewed science papers concerning climate change. Also has links to a highly informative alternative (to IPCC) climate change report.
http://www. icecap.us/ - similar to the previous link
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/ - slightly more polemical than the above two sites but still highly informative. Christopher Monckton is regular contributor to the site and is hated by many environmentalists for matching their aggressive tactics.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/ - the most popular sceptic blog online. Sometimes has up to ten blogs per day.
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/index.htm - an underrated site with a lot of research, graphs and data.
http://climateaudit.org/ - the site of Steve McIntyre, one half of the duo that exposed Al Gore's hockey stick graph fraud.
Sites that generally concur with mainstream theory:
http://www.realclimate.org/ - Partly run by William Connelly , who is banned from Wikipedia for aggressive censorship and editing of GW articles and publishing links to his own site as source. Still useful though.
http://www.ipcc.ch/ - The IPCC site
http://www.unep.org/climatechange/ The UN's climate change site
Other sites of interest:
www.skepdic.com - a fantastic and longs serving site dealing with sceptical views of most things paranormal. The only worry is that it has recently inserted a link to Greenfyre's blog. I can only think it was done as a personal favour.
http://www.don-lindsay-archive.org/skeptic/arguments.html - Again, a list of faulty arguments
http://www.weaselwords.com.au/index3.htm - a site documenting public uses of weasel wording, another form of deception.
Monday, 27 December 2010
Why we should be happy Nick Griffin won
The problem with politics is that it suffers from a 'team sport' mentality. Followers of one party or ideology tend to cheer any misfortune of those that oppose them, regardless of the cost. This was definitely the case during the recent legal trial of the BNP which ended in a totally just way. The acquittal of the BNP (Nick Griffin) in the Courts of Justice this week was good for everyone who believes in democracy, regardless of what they think of the BNP.
There are minor and major points for this. The first minor point - I say 'minor' in the grand scheme of things - is that Griffin was obviously innocent. The BNP had been ordered to change their constitution (wrongly in my opinion) and had done so. Any ethnic race of person is now allowed to join the BNP. How the EHRC could claim that Griffin's following of court orders was "contempt of court" is beyond belief, and the EHRC case was never really made clear.
Second minor point: the case was clearly persecution. Indeed, it's only since the BNP had two MEPs elected that these charges began to crop up. Cases against Griffin and the BNP have been thrown out of court over the last few years while MPs fiddling expenses, others abusing their position and those implicated in the Iraq war lies have walked away scot free.
And now we come to the major point, so please let me explain how crucial this is. Britain is arguably the oldest democracy in The World. It is also one of the most stable. No other major country has gone for so long without a coup, civil war or mutiny. Undoubtedly one of the reasons for this is the balance of our constitution. The three main elements - legislative (parliament) executive (Monarchy/Cabinet) and Judiciary (Courts) function so well because of their independence. As soon as one starts interfering with the other, you have problems, yet for each branch to become truly independent of each other often takes time. This is why less mature democracies such as Thailand, many African states and even some Eastern European states have endless political upheaval, often resulting in deaths, torture and persecution. Usually this stems from government interference with the legal system and other abuses of power.
This allegedly happened in Thailand, with Thaksin Shinwatra's political party being completely disbanded by the courts. Its reincarnation was then dissolved for the almighty offence of allowing its leader to appear on a TV cooking show while being employed as Prime Minister. It happened in Zinbabawae when Muagbe's opponents were repeatedly beaten, threatened and imprisoned. Of course it happened in Burma, too. Even in Italy, Belusconi's critics were often tailed and intimidated going round their daily duties.
The list of examples goes on and on. They all have one thing in common - they represent to some degree a corrupt, unhealthy and unsafe democracy which nobody in their right mind would choose over our own, despite its many imperfections.
What has this got to do with the BNP case? Everything. The Equalities and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) is a government body bearing the common and tired disguise of a "quango" status. It is run, funded and selected by the government, without any public involvement whatsoever. So when the EHRC takes legal action to close down a party, it is essentially the government using your own money to eliminate its opposition.
It may be harsh to draw comparisons between British democracy and those countries just mentioned, but it's only thanks to the Courts of Justice that we can see the difference in the BNP case.
Let's be clear - I am not a BNP supporter. It doesn't make one iota of difference if you love or loathe the BNP. If Nick Griffin had been imprisoned in last fortnight's court hearing - there would be two victors. The first would be the government, because they would've eliminated a growing political threat in a sly, undemocratic and underhand way. The second victor would be the hate-filled, fanatical and violently vicious fringe bunch of so called "anti-fascists' who would have danced with great delight on the grave of the strongest, healthiest and - for all its faults - one of the best and most just constitutions in the world.
There are minor and major points for this. The first minor point - I say 'minor' in the grand scheme of things - is that Griffin was obviously innocent. The BNP had been ordered to change their constitution (wrongly in my opinion) and had done so. Any ethnic race of person is now allowed to join the BNP. How the EHRC could claim that Griffin's following of court orders was "contempt of court" is beyond belief, and the EHRC case was never really made clear.
Second minor point: the case was clearly persecution. Indeed, it's only since the BNP had two MEPs elected that these charges began to crop up. Cases against Griffin and the BNP have been thrown out of court over the last few years while MPs fiddling expenses, others abusing their position and those implicated in the Iraq war lies have walked away scot free.
And now we come to the major point, so please let me explain how crucial this is. Britain is arguably the oldest democracy in The World. It is also one of the most stable. No other major country has gone for so long without a coup, civil war or mutiny. Undoubtedly one of the reasons for this is the balance of our constitution. The three main elements - legislative (parliament) executive (Monarchy/Cabinet) and Judiciary (Courts) function so well because of their independence. As soon as one starts interfering with the other, you have problems, yet for each branch to become truly independent of each other often takes time. This is why less mature democracies such as Thailand, many African states and even some Eastern European states have endless political upheaval, often resulting in deaths, torture and persecution. Usually this stems from government interference with the legal system and other abuses of power.
This allegedly happened in Thailand, with Thaksin Shinwatra's political party being completely disbanded by the courts. Its reincarnation was then dissolved for the almighty offence of allowing its leader to appear on a TV cooking show while being employed as Prime Minister. It happened in Zinbabawae when Muagbe's opponents were repeatedly beaten, threatened and imprisoned. Of course it happened in Burma, too. Even in Italy, Belusconi's critics were often tailed and intimidated going round their daily duties.
The list of examples goes on and on. They all have one thing in common - they represent to some degree a corrupt, unhealthy and unsafe democracy which nobody in their right mind would choose over our own, despite its many imperfections.
What has this got to do with the BNP case? Everything. The Equalities and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) is a government body bearing the common and tired disguise of a "quango" status. It is run, funded and selected by the government, without any public involvement whatsoever. So when the EHRC takes legal action to close down a party, it is essentially the government using your own money to eliminate its opposition.
It may be harsh to draw comparisons between British democracy and those countries just mentioned, but it's only thanks to the Courts of Justice that we can see the difference in the BNP case.
Let's be clear - I am not a BNP supporter. It doesn't make one iota of difference if you love or loathe the BNP. If Nick Griffin had been imprisoned in last fortnight's court hearing - there would be two victors. The first would be the government, because they would've eliminated a growing political threat in a sly, undemocratic and underhand way. The second victor would be the hate-filled, fanatical and violently vicious fringe bunch of so called "anti-fascists' who would have danced with great delight on the grave of the strongest, healthiest and - for all its faults - one of the best and most just constitutions in the world.
Monday, 6 December 2010
The case for boycotting the World Cup
 |
| Qatar's World Cup record (en.wikipedia.org) |
Not all people believe that. I've spoken to some folk who are pleased to see Qatar hosting the greatest of tournaments in 2022. Fine, if you support the nation of well under two million people with no current facilities, a totally inappropriate climate, no democracy and that has never, ever qualified for the tournament by merit or otherwise then I'm happy for you. My feelings about the process have already been stated, and that is why I believe that England and other well-known football nations should boycott at least one World Cup.
The aim of the boycott would be to discredit FIFA, register our disgust at the blatant corruption and megalomania going on within the group and most importantly pressure them to reform. We should make clear that we are not disputing the decisions already made as that would make us look sore losers, rather we have to press for reform so that the same farce cannot repeat itself in future.
More specifically, we must call for voting to be public, not secret. We should push for a disclosure of interests including any payments or lobbying interests of FIFA committee members in a similar way to the system used by western parliaments. We could also push for a public written summary of the final vote by each committee member, or some similar token of public interest. A statement of values and aims by FIFA in selecting candidate nations is essential, too. There has been one too many nations with human rights abuse, corruption and total lack of democracy involved in World Cup hosting lately and the pathetic argument from FIFA that gifting the tournament to them helps makes things better does not stand up the the tiniest amount of scrutiny.
Why would a boycott work? Well consider that FIFA has been compared to a global government in several circles this year. After all, they have income and power well above many nations. But while governments must gain legitimacy by appeasing voters or beating them into submission (Burma, Zimbabwe, etc.), FIFA gains its power by the football prestige of its members. If the countries mistreated in the voting such as Spain, Portugal, Japan, England, Belgium and Holland and even Australia and the US withdrew from the World Cup, that would strike a humongous blow to the tournament's prestige, popularity and profits. In other words, FIFA would lose out on everything they care for.
It's going to be hard. As a success-starved nation where football is the closest we have to a modern religion, it's going to be painful to watch a tournament and not have our lads to cheer. We'll get over it though, just like in USA '90 when we had to pretend we cared about the Irish side. Of course, we'll lose out financially too. Other nations will suffer a similar stress but it will be "short term pain for long term gain".
Perhaps the great Gary Lineker said it best: "People keep telling me we have to play the game differently, that we are too straight for our own good. I don't think that is the case. We just do things the right way. But if that is what has cost us the World Cup, then forget it - maybe it's not worth having."
Let's make it worth having again.
Thursday, 25 November 2010
Some thoughts on extremist "art"
On hearing about the new shock film: 'A Serbian Film" - which I must state I have not seen but relied on several reviews and reports - I shared my thoughts on Facebook thus:
The problem I have with rubbish like this is that it so often works as a substitute for talent. A rubbish film or album this controversial will attract controversy, people watch/listen because of curiosity, therefore the makers get money and that motivates the next bunch of talentless tossers to do something even worse. I always hold Roy Chubby Brown up as one such example of controversay trumping talent.
The real answer to such nonsense is to ignore it and shrug our shoulders at people trying to get our attention by being obscene, but for some reason the human race struggles to do that.
This is, of course, not to suggest that every offensive figure lacks talent. Eddy Murphy is a great comedian and Marilyn Manson are a good band.
I've just read the "reception" section on wikipedia for this film. I think one reviewer made a good point and one that I forgot to mention - rubbish artists, actors and producers who make obscene rubbish always turn it into a) a battle against censorship or b) some pseudo-allegorical nonsense about politics, society or human psyche
It looks like the producers of this movie may have done both.
When told a piece of art has undertones, we try to find them, but it's often a case of 'The Emperors New Clothes'.
Necrophilia is not an allegory for the Sebian independence movement or a cry for freedom of speech. It's just bloody sick.
To be fair, imdb does have some intelligently written reviews defending the film.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1273235/usercomments
The problem I have with rubbish like this is that it so often works as a substitute for talent. A rubbish film or album this controversial will attract controversy, people watch/listen because of curiosity, therefore the makers get money and that motivates the next bunch of talentless tossers to do something even worse. I always hold Roy Chubby Brown up as one such example of controversay trumping talent.
The real answer to such nonsense is to ignore it and shrug our shoulders at people trying to get our attention by being obscene, but for some reason the human race struggles to do that.
This is, of course, not to suggest that every offensive figure lacks talent. Eddy Murphy is a great comedian and Marilyn Manson are a good band.
I've just read the "reception" section on wikipedia for this film. I think one reviewer made a good point and one that I forgot to mention - rubbish artists, actors and producers who make obscene rubbish always turn it into a) a battle against censorship or b) some pseudo-allegorical nonsense about politics, society or human psyche
It looks like the producers of this movie may have done both.
When told a piece of art has undertones, we try to find them, but it's often a case of 'The Emperors New Clothes'.
Necrophilia is not an allegory for the Sebian independence movement or a cry for freedom of speech. It's just bloody sick.
To be fair, imdb does have some intelligently written reviews defending the film.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1273235/usercomments
Thursday, 11 November 2010
Lest we forget
 |
| Image credit: www.dailymail.co.uk |
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1328703/Remembrance-Day-Poppy-burning-Muslim-protesters-mar-Armistice-Day.html
I normally don't look at UAF sites as they are worthless, hateful trash but just out of curiosity I looked today to see if they mentioned this. Surprise, surprise, no poppy or sign of respect, no mention of this incident and raving about their secretary having charges against him dropped as it would affect "the right to protest". The biggest threat to the "right to protest" is those fascist, violent, hate filled UAF scum.
Aplogies for the lack of articulation but I felt so angry after reading this.
Lest we forget, and may they rest in peace.
Monday, 20 September 2010
A letter I had published
So, Dr Ajong Chumsai na Ayudhya warns us in a conference that Bangkok will be under water in seven years, and it's all due to human activities and, apparently, the displacement of the earth's crust.
I wish I had been there to ask the good doctor two questions following his presentation. Firstly: Where is the evidence for these chilling, apocalyptic claims? I've seen plenty of data confirming natural disasters are, if anything, currently occurring at slightly below average frequency, and absolutely no evidence that polar bears will be extinct in six years. In fact, their numbers are currently holding up very well indeed. As for sea levels rising by six metres, even the IPCC climate-change panel has said nothing so ridiculous.
My second question would then be: Are you under some financial incentive to produce and follow up on these chilling warnings? We all know that taxpayers are more likely to part with their earnings when buttered up with a few scary stories beforehand.
In any case, I'm willing, quite literally, to bet my Bangkok house that the doctor is totally wrong and that Krung Thep will still be here and above water in 70 years, never mind seven.
Greg
Bangkok
I wish I had been there to ask the good doctor two questions following his presentation. Firstly: Where is the evidence for these chilling, apocalyptic claims? I've seen plenty of data confirming natural disasters are, if anything, currently occurring at slightly below average frequency, and absolutely no evidence that polar bears will be extinct in six years. In fact, their numbers are currently holding up very well indeed. As for sea levels rising by six metres, even the IPCC climate-change panel has said nothing so ridiculous.
My second question would then be: Are you under some financial incentive to produce and follow up on these chilling warnings? We all know that taxpayers are more likely to part with their earnings when buttered up with a few scary stories beforehand.
In any case, I'm willing, quite literally, to bet my Bangkok house that the doctor is totally wrong and that Krung Thep will still be here and above water in 70 years, never mind seven.
Greg
Bangkok
Thursday, 22 July 2010
Climate Change - still no evidence it's humans
It was an event so remarkable that it was almost lost on some people. Dr Phil Jones - the professor at the centre of the East Anglia CRU "Climategate" scandal - was allowed to approve which papers were used in evidence during some of the "independent" investigations into the scandal. It's a bizarre decision that seems equivalent to a robber approving which stolen items can be used as evidence in court. Then again, perhaps it's not all that surprising since one of the "independent" investigative bodies had the logo and email address of East Anglia University on their own logo.
But really, who cares? Who will notice? For most people, Climategate is old news. The casual current affairs observer read that some scientists got in trouble, they may have been lying about global warming but then a whole bunch of people checked and said they were fine. As for those already involved in such a fiercely polarised debate, well, they were never going to budge anyway. Sure enough, order was quickly restored as the whitewashing investigations did their job, the media went crawling back to every scientist who assured us climate change is real and the sceptics became the pantomime villains once again. Certainty was restored.
The only problem is, nobody seems to know: what we are supposed to be certain of? Next time you hear someone preaching about climate change, how serious it is and how we need to take action yesterday, ask them a few questions. Start with something easy such as: "What exactly are we certain is happening?". Most of them will mention Earth is getting warmer, the halfway smart ones will remember to mention something about co2 or anthropogenic activity.
Now ask a very slightly more informed questioned that cannot be answered with bluster, something like: "When was the last year that temperatures actually peaked?"(Answer: 1995) , follow that with a few more moderate queries like: "How much of the temperature rise is due to carbon dioxide?" (Nobody knows) "What is the hottest time period on record?" (Answer: The Medieval Warm Period) and so on. Before long they'll admit they don't know. You might even get called a 'denier' or some other insult for good measure. The reality is that most of us don't really know a great deal behind the science of climate change, but some of us like to pretend we do. In truth, we do as all generations have done and look to our finest minds to guide us in the esoteric ways of science. Therein lies the problem.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are the multimillion dollar taxpayer-funded unit of scientific specialists who are responsible for researching, predicting and advising the rest of the world about global warming. With a huge amount of lobbying influence and a whole wealth of corporate interests flying around, we can surely be forgiven for expecting the unit to provide us with accurate, understandable and specific data about what's happening and what's going to happen. The reality is the exact opposite.
Predictions, warnings and forecasts from the IPCC ever since its inception in 1990 have been vague, wrong and contradictory to the point of resembling a tabloid astrologer's column. We've been warned over and over again of temperature increases that have not happened. We've been told the warming would first appear at the poles. Hot weather spells are due to global warming but snowfall is also a sign of the same thing. There will be more floods or hurricanes. Certain animals will become extinct, others will multiply by the horde. The extra co2 - required for respiration in plant life - will encroach the rainforest. It will create droughts, but extra rainfall is also a symptom. The surreal list goes on and on. Can we really blame the laymen for being unclear when this is what they are fed on?
The list of doomsday events such as extra natural disasters, melting poles and "unprecedented" (one of the IPCC's favourite and most overused words) heat are not random. They are designed to create fear, for fear is what keeps the taxpayers happy to part with their money for the nice scientists who will protect them.
But if you've lost any sleep about any of these nightmare-like events we've been warned about, go and get some shuteye right now. There is absolutely zero evidence that hurricanes, volcanoes or any other disaster has increased in frequency. In fact, they seem to have declined very slightly. The decline of the Arctic ice has received (ahem) extended interest from the media and the IPCC, both of whom neglect to mention that decline has been in trend since the end of the last Little Ice Age and is not accelerating. Meanwhile, the Antarctic ice is doing great. Funny, we don't hear about that.
As for "unprecedented" temperatures and the warnings from the likes of Al Gore that several of the last fifteen years have been the hottest on record, well it's just plain false. That's the reason alarmists hate to hear about the Medieval Warm Period.
Of course, none of this proves that AGW is false or a flawed theory, but it must surely prove to any sane person that even our supposed finest minds really don't know what is happening, to what extent it's happening or what will happen in the future. So why is there so much talk of a "consensus"? Could the multi-million dollar business interests of the IPCC have anything to do with it? Don't mistake this as a conspiracy theory. The only "conspiracy" you need to accept here is that powerful people will lie to get themselves rich. WMDs anyone? How about some MPs expenses on the side?
There's more reason to be sceptical. Huge parts of the AGW theory fall flat on their face. The theory clearly states that warming will appear in the troposphere, it isn't. It says that co2 will drive climate, in history the opposite has happened on a large scale. It states the sea levels should rise exponentially, they aren't. There's any number of examples where things simply aren't happening as they should be if the basic theory of increased radiative forcing generated by increased co2 emissions was straightforward and steadfast.
Perhaps the biggest slice of misinformation in this whole debate is the term used to describe scientists who oppose the mainstream opinion, the so-called 'deniers' - a term deliberately chosen for its disgusting undertones - is used to smear knowledgeable, qualified and good-natured people who dare to dissent. Very few scientists I have read from have denied the climate is changing, climate is always changing. What they dispute is the extent to which co2 plays a role in that change.
The theory of heat transference in the atmosphere is well established, but as we've seen, climate is a new and uncertain science with an incredible number of factors to consider; solar output, natural feedbacks, cloud feedback, continental shifts, astrophysics and more. A number of well-qualified scientists question if the increased co2 emissions will have any effect whatsoever. Many more believe that there will be an effect, but it will be far gentler than the IPCC suggest, and the trillions of dollars we will spend trying to cut temperatures by a minuscule percentage may be far better spent on reducing real pollution, researching cleaner energy, building hospitals or any other number of good causes. A layman 'denier' like me is inclined to agree.
Tuesday, 1 June 2010
The problem with the EDL
I do not pretend to be knowledgeable or even well informed about the English Defence League. The group were formed after I left the UK and the main source of detail I receive is from Facebook groups or minor newspaper articles.
However, even with such a trickle of knowledge, I had a hunch from very early on that there is more ton this group than meets the eye.
The EDL are clearly a defeatist party who will never gain mainstream acceptance. There is nothing new about this of course. Both sides of the political spectrum have small groups who want to live out some form of fantasy (think neo-Nazis or neo-Bolsheviks) and take pride on being outsiders, destined to be political losers forever. What seems to make the EDL different is the speed with which they have formed and become organised and the amount of attention they are receiving. The group are already organising marches around the nation, receiving lots of hits on their website and everyone involved in politics has an opinion on them. Compare this to the controversial BNP or even the National Front. Both groups took years to gain enough support to yield attention or concern.
Part of the reason for the EDL's appeal lies in the simplicity of their message. They're not a 'ballot box' political party, so they don't need to even pretend they have policies. Their focus is simple: march in support of the flag and against Islam. They do not have a racial agenda (though many on the left dispute this) and no political aspirations. If you're English, you're one of them. Or so they claim.
With immigration such a huge political issue at the moment and the government (new or old) appearing so weak in dealing with the failure of multiculturalism, the EDL's simple message reaches out to many disenchanted working class Brits who feel so betrayed by politicians and sick of political correctness. They are searching for a voice and they believe the EDL gives it to them.
But the problem is that a greatly simplified message will - for the most part - attract fairly simple people. It's no coincidence that the biggest reaction to the recent "Police are telling people in pubs they cannot wear England Shirts" hoax that did the rounds online and in the UK media came from EDL supporters. They took no time to consider the authenticity of the message or check any sources. They read it, so it must be true.
This is not a description of all EDL members and I'm sure many of them are more intelligent, qualified and wise than myself, but I think the majority of members fit my description.
EDL marches paint a similar picture. So many shaved heads, hooded tops and angry faces play perfectly into the hands of their objectors or despicable groups like the UAF who seek any excuse to silence groups whom they dislike. There have been claims and accusations of widespread violence and anti-semitism on display at EDL marches. It should go without saying that if these claims are true, this is despicable. The problem is that however vehemently EDL staff deny these charges, people will always disbelieve them for the reasons mentioned above. They can't win.
With so much negative publicity and no apparent benefits from their existence, the obvious question is: Who is running the EDL? And to what purpose?
Sections of the left would claim the group is either a front-group or a militant section of the BNP or NF, often citing a few examples of far-right personnel who have joined the group. I think that's rubbish. The BNP have worked a long time to distance themselves from the 'football hooligan' image and have nothing to gain from setting up a group that achieves little more than a bunch of bad publicity. BNP Chairman Nick Griffin has also publicly criticised the group ins strong terms.
I think two far stronger possibilities exist. First - the EDL is run by a political party or person in a position of wealth or power on the left. This is not a conspiracy theory, it's simply a matter of realpolitik. The notions of patriotism, anti-Islam and groups like the BNP have been on the rise in recent years. Far-left groups have attempted to silence them and waves of politically correct politicians have attempted to stereotype them. For a long time it worked. But slowly society is waking up to the fact that opposing Islam is not racialist and patriotism is not inherently evil.
What better way to smash the growth of such sentiment than creating guilt by association? If you're against immigration or militant Islam you're just like those stupid hooligans marching and screaming in the street. In other words, you're a Fascist. And Fascists worked with Hitler.
The second possibility is that the EDL are a group designed to further split the right wing vote. After the BNP won a seat on the London Assembly, the government set about using new legislation to try and bankrupt the party, to whoops of delight from the "anti fascist" far-left. That failed. The idea of a party similar to the BNP in its message but at loggerheads with each other seems a perfect way to split votes and weaken the enemy. Again, if this sounds like conspiracy talk to you, ask yourself: what do you call it when a government grants itself new powers to bankrupt an opposing political party?
The other possibility is that the EDL is run by a coalition of far-right groups with the aim of creating fear and anxiety in certain areas for the purpose of enjoying violence and aggression. This is possible, but the level of funding, organisation and support seems to be out of their league.
Whatever the truth of the EDL, I want their well-meaning members - of which I'm sure we have many - to consider this: there is a good chance that the EDL is actually doing harm to every cause you stand for.
Leftists love nothing more than kidding themselves that nationalists of any type are stupid, gullible and inarticulate. It helps them to kid themselves they are smart. The government (any of the big three parties) love to portray opponents of immigration as uneducated, violent people, and the small proportion of Muslims who are militant love to portray EDL marches as 'Islamophobic' and 'hateful'
Yes, the growth of Islam in the UK is a massive concern. Yes, immigration (but not immigrants themselves) probably is a threat to our identity and way of life. Yes, political correctness is a cancer. And yes, the government have almost certainly encouraged all these things at the expense of the ethnic English. None of these facts justify support of the EDL. On the contrary, the reality of the problem is the reason why we should avoid such groups. A deeply complex problem should not be solved with a very simple yell of anger (at least, not without something else to go with it).
The real solution is this: study the problem, consider workable, genuine solutions to the problems. Decide which UK political party best suits your principles. UKIP and the English Democrats are both respected political parties with sensible policies to tackle immigration and protect traditional cultures.
Read bit more, learn about the inner workings of the political system, perhaps even become a candidate for your party. In short: tackle the enemy from within. It makes you so much harder to deal with.
One place to start wuld be the book "Saving England" by Vernon Coleman. Th ebook is short, easy to read and contains some good ideas.
EDL supporters, I repeat: if you care for any of the causes your group professes to support, my advice is to vent your passion in a very different way. The real defence of England does not lie with the EDL.
However, even with such a trickle of knowledge, I had a hunch from very early on that there is more ton this group than meets the eye.
The EDL are clearly a defeatist party who will never gain mainstream acceptance. There is nothing new about this of course. Both sides of the political spectrum have small groups who want to live out some form of fantasy (think neo-Nazis or neo-Bolsheviks) and take pride on being outsiders, destined to be political losers forever. What seems to make the EDL different is the speed with which they have formed and become organised and the amount of attention they are receiving. The group are already organising marches around the nation, receiving lots of hits on their website and everyone involved in politics has an opinion on them. Compare this to the controversial BNP or even the National Front. Both groups took years to gain enough support to yield attention or concern.
Part of the reason for the EDL's appeal lies in the simplicity of their message. They're not a 'ballot box' political party, so they don't need to even pretend they have policies. Their focus is simple: march in support of the flag and against Islam. They do not have a racial agenda (though many on the left dispute this) and no political aspirations. If you're English, you're one of them. Or so they claim.
With immigration such a huge political issue at the moment and the government (new or old) appearing so weak in dealing with the failure of multiculturalism, the EDL's simple message reaches out to many disenchanted working class Brits who feel so betrayed by politicians and sick of political correctness. They are searching for a voice and they believe the EDL gives it to them.
But the problem is that a greatly simplified message will - for the most part - attract fairly simple people. It's no coincidence that the biggest reaction to the recent "Police are telling people in pubs they cannot wear England Shirts" hoax that did the rounds online and in the UK media came from EDL supporters. They took no time to consider the authenticity of the message or check any sources. They read it, so it must be true.
This is not a description of all EDL members and I'm sure many of them are more intelligent, qualified and wise than myself, but I think the majority of members fit my description.
EDL marches paint a similar picture. So many shaved heads, hooded tops and angry faces play perfectly into the hands of their objectors or despicable groups like the UAF who seek any excuse to silence groups whom they dislike. There have been claims and accusations of widespread violence and anti-semitism on display at EDL marches. It should go without saying that if these claims are true, this is despicable. The problem is that however vehemently EDL staff deny these charges, people will always disbelieve them for the reasons mentioned above. They can't win.
With so much negative publicity and no apparent benefits from their existence, the obvious question is: Who is running the EDL? And to what purpose?
Sections of the left would claim the group is either a front-group or a militant section of the BNP or NF, often citing a few examples of far-right personnel who have joined the group. I think that's rubbish. The BNP have worked a long time to distance themselves from the 'football hooligan' image and have nothing to gain from setting up a group that achieves little more than a bunch of bad publicity. BNP Chairman Nick Griffin has also publicly criticised the group ins strong terms.
I think two far stronger possibilities exist. First - the EDL is run by a political party or person in a position of wealth or power on the left. This is not a conspiracy theory, it's simply a matter of realpolitik. The notions of patriotism, anti-Islam and groups like the BNP have been on the rise in recent years. Far-left groups have attempted to silence them and waves of politically correct politicians have attempted to stereotype them. For a long time it worked. But slowly society is waking up to the fact that opposing Islam is not racialist and patriotism is not inherently evil.
What better way to smash the growth of such sentiment than creating guilt by association? If you're against immigration or militant Islam you're just like those stupid hooligans marching and screaming in the street. In other words, you're a Fascist. And Fascists worked with Hitler.
The second possibility is that the EDL are a group designed to further split the right wing vote. After the BNP won a seat on the London Assembly, the government set about using new legislation to try and bankrupt the party, to whoops of delight from the "anti fascist" far-left. That failed. The idea of a party similar to the BNP in its message but at loggerheads with each other seems a perfect way to split votes and weaken the enemy. Again, if this sounds like conspiracy talk to you, ask yourself: what do you call it when a government grants itself new powers to bankrupt an opposing political party?
The other possibility is that the EDL is run by a coalition of far-right groups with the aim of creating fear and anxiety in certain areas for the purpose of enjoying violence and aggression. This is possible, but the level of funding, organisation and support seems to be out of their league.
Whatever the truth of the EDL, I want their well-meaning members - of which I'm sure we have many - to consider this: there is a good chance that the EDL is actually doing harm to every cause you stand for.
Leftists love nothing more than kidding themselves that nationalists of any type are stupid, gullible and inarticulate. It helps them to kid themselves they are smart. The government (any of the big three parties) love to portray opponents of immigration as uneducated, violent people, and the small proportion of Muslims who are militant love to portray EDL marches as 'Islamophobic' and 'hateful'
Yes, the growth of Islam in the UK is a massive concern. Yes, immigration (but not immigrants themselves) probably is a threat to our identity and way of life. Yes, political correctness is a cancer. And yes, the government have almost certainly encouraged all these things at the expense of the ethnic English. None of these facts justify support of the EDL. On the contrary, the reality of the problem is the reason why we should avoid such groups. A deeply complex problem should not be solved with a very simple yell of anger (at least, not without something else to go with it).
The real solution is this: study the problem, consider workable, genuine solutions to the problems. Decide which UK political party best suits your principles. UKIP and the English Democrats are both respected political parties with sensible policies to tackle immigration and protect traditional cultures.
Read bit more, learn about the inner workings of the political system, perhaps even become a candidate for your party. In short: tackle the enemy from within. It makes you so much harder to deal with.
One place to start wuld be the book "Saving England" by Vernon Coleman. Th ebook is short, easy to read and contains some good ideas.
EDL supporters, I repeat: if you care for any of the causes your group professes to support, my advice is to vent your passion in a very different way. The real defence of England does not lie with the EDL.
Wednesday, 19 May 2010
On lazy thinking and errors of logic
Did you know that all Muslims are willing suicide bombers? Or that all brown eyed people are bank robbers? Bet you weren't aware that eating food guarantees death within one hundred and fifty years?
The above statements are all of course, ridiculously untrue or in the case of the final question, deceptive in its composition. You probably caught on immediately to all three fallacies because they are purposely outrageous. Yet, sadly, many equally ridiculous errors of logic exist in both British and Thai society and spread every day.
To use a topical example, the activities of the red shirt protesters in Thailand - whom I do not support - have met with a whole number of sweepingly ignorant remarks and media reporting in recent weeks. With the attempted assassination last night of General Sah Deang ("red commander" , someone whom I dislike and disagree with) a whole wave of ignorant remarks has spread throughout Thai Facebook groups.
Let's take a look at a typical quote doing the rounds:
"They [the red shirts] deserve it. They caused so many problems. They've used bombs themselves, they've caused great inconvenience to most people and they want to destroy the Emerald Buddha"
The prejudices and false understanding of the red shirt movement has already been dealt with by myself here:
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=383745141572
...so let's now take a look at some of the logical fallacies going on here.
The first, easiest to spot and yet most common error we see here is the fallacy of biased sampling in the idea that "the red shirts used bombs". This is a reference to sporadic grenade attacks on one Skytrain station and government building in Bangkok. In both cases, a maximum of two people carried out the attack and there is absolutely zero evidence suggesting red shirts did it.
But let's suppose red shirts were responsible for the attacks. The number of red shirt protesters could be estimated at, say, fifteen thousand people. So even if we imagine the four attackers were red shirts, that would account for a grand total of 0.0265 of the group. I imagine that's a similar or even smaller ratio than that of suicide bomber Muslims, criminal homosexuals or blue eyed rapists, but imagine the outcry if we tried to push any of those statements into popular thought.
So why do people think in such an erroneous way? In part, it is simply lazy thinking and received wisdom, but popular media must also take a large part of the blame. The more an incident - especially a violent or scary incident - is reported, the greater precedence it takes in our minds. Often that precedence is out of proportion with all risk. For example, during the bird flu scare, lots of Thais avoided eating chicken after about three farmers tragically died of the illness. I doubt many of those people avoided travelling by motorbike despite the three hundred or more equally tragic road deaths that month.
But other fallacies exist. The statement ( "they've caused so much disruption" ) also contains the old 'two wrongs make a right' argument that is so prevalent in Thailand these days. This argument is popular because it is basically an excuse to release the bad side that we all have inside us, that side that enjoys revenge and suffering on people with dislike. In short it says: "These people have done something to upset me, so it's OK for me to enjoy watching them suffer."
I fall for it as much as anyone else. The problem with this argument of course is that as well as losing its user any kind of moral high ground, it can work backwards. Pretty much any religious, ethnic or political group in any country can claim to have been wronged by any other at some point in time. Does that allow us to sit back and smirk when some form of revenge takes place? If we use the TWMAR argument, where does it ever stop?
The final sentence: "they wanted to destroy the Emerald Buddha" contains several errors in one short sentence. In fact, this was a total government fabrication reported widely in the media (which again demonstrates the power of the media to control our thinking). Why was this nonsense made up? The first reason is known as: "poisoning the wells".
"Poisoning the wells" is not the same as an ad-hominem attack (which this sentence also contains) because the idea of 'poisoning the well' is not only to discredit the target, but to ensure that any claim or intention stated by the target in future is considered false. In our example case, this works because the Emerald Buddha is a revered building in Thailand and any attack on it would imply terrorism and a hatred of the nation.
The final error I will point out here is the appeal to authority. In the case the authority is the DSI (Department of Special Investigation) who made the claim of the attempted attack on the Emerald Buddha by red shirts. The fallacy goes like this - the DSI are specialists on crime, the DSI make a statement about the red shirts planning crime, so the statement must be true.
OK let me indulge in one more observation. I don't know the name for this error, but it is clear: "Red shirts and yellow shirts are as bad as each other". In short, because they are both political, they are both brightly coloured and both protest. Ergo, they are equally evil. This error of thinking is so obvious when laid out that I surely don't need to explain the poor logic. Yet, we hear such comments every day.
Here's a few other random examples of errors in logic or judgment. In some cases I have given examples and explanations.
1) The appeal to force.
If you don't agree with me, something scary will happen.
"If we don't use ID cards in the UK, then we won't catch terrorists."
2) Euphemisms
In my personal experience, when right wing groups are involved in any kind of conflict, it is "imperialism" "right wing violence" etc. When leftists do it its is "direct action" , "protests" "conflicts with authority" etc.
This works because usage of certain vocabulary can greatly alter our judgment of a situation.
3) Argument to false authority
Do not confuse this with the "argument to authority" which concerns someone who actually has some specialised knowledge on the topic. The false authority does not, though may pretend otherwise.
The head of the IPCC says anthropogenic global warming is real so many people believe it to be so. But this man is a train engineer, why do we allow him to make such a decision for us?
4) Lying or false sources
"The Loch Ness monster is real. It says so on the webssite I read." (that I created myself).
"It's real, I read it on wikipedia."
5) Appeal to personal charm.
"Ahisit and Obama are both young, smart looking and good speakers. Therefore, they are the best people to run their respective countries."
6) Distraction or changing the subject.
Student A: "Did you steal that money from my desk?"
Student B: "You're just saying that because you failed your exam last week!"
7) Appeal by anecdote
A favourite of British politicians and used by all three candidates in the Prime Ministerial debates. Personal anecdotes are effective because they put a personal and often lucid slant on things that can make the argument seem more powerful than it really is.
"A lot of British people are very happy about the ID cards. Last week I met a lovely, sweet elderly lady living in a small cottage who told me she wanted an ID card because....."
In the example above, the little sweet old lady can make us forget that the vast majority of people believe ID cards are wrong.
8) Argument from selective or limited experience
"Most Thai women dress like bar girls. I spent a week on Nana Plaza and that was all I saw" (selective or biased experience)
"Polish people love tennis. I met two Poles last week who bought tickets for Wimbledon" (Limited experience)
9) Weasel wording
http://www.weaselwords.com.au/
10) To be nominated by anyone who cares to do so!
The above statements are all of course, ridiculously untrue or in the case of the final question, deceptive in its composition. You probably caught on immediately to all three fallacies because they are purposely outrageous. Yet, sadly, many equally ridiculous errors of logic exist in both British and Thai society and spread every day.
To use a topical example, the activities of the red shirt protesters in Thailand - whom I do not support - have met with a whole number of sweepingly ignorant remarks and media reporting in recent weeks. With the attempted assassination last night of General Sah Deang ("red commander" , someone whom I dislike and disagree with) a whole wave of ignorant remarks has spread throughout Thai Facebook groups.
Let's take a look at a typical quote doing the rounds:
"They [the red shirts] deserve it. They caused so many problems. They've used bombs themselves, they've caused great inconvenience to most people and they want to destroy the Emerald Buddha"
The prejudices and false understanding of the red shirt movement has already been dealt with by myself here:
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=383745141572
...so let's now take a look at some of the logical fallacies going on here.
The first, easiest to spot and yet most common error we see here is the fallacy of biased sampling in the idea that "the red shirts used bombs". This is a reference to sporadic grenade attacks on one Skytrain station and government building in Bangkok. In both cases, a maximum of two people carried out the attack and there is absolutely zero evidence suggesting red shirts did it.
But let's suppose red shirts were responsible for the attacks. The number of red shirt protesters could be estimated at, say, fifteen thousand people. So even if we imagine the four attackers were red shirts, that would account for a grand total of 0.0265 of the group. I imagine that's a similar or even smaller ratio than that of suicide bomber Muslims, criminal homosexuals or blue eyed rapists, but imagine the outcry if we tried to push any of those statements into popular thought.
So why do people think in such an erroneous way? In part, it is simply lazy thinking and received wisdom, but popular media must also take a large part of the blame. The more an incident - especially a violent or scary incident - is reported, the greater precedence it takes in our minds. Often that precedence is out of proportion with all risk. For example, during the bird flu scare, lots of Thais avoided eating chicken after about three farmers tragically died of the illness. I doubt many of those people avoided travelling by motorbike despite the three hundred or more equally tragic road deaths that month.
But other fallacies exist. The statement ( "they've caused so much disruption" ) also contains the old 'two wrongs make a right' argument that is so prevalent in Thailand these days. This argument is popular because it is basically an excuse to release the bad side that we all have inside us, that side that enjoys revenge and suffering on people with dislike. In short it says: "These people have done something to upset me, so it's OK for me to enjoy watching them suffer."
I fall for it as much as anyone else. The problem with this argument of course is that as well as losing its user any kind of moral high ground, it can work backwards. Pretty much any religious, ethnic or political group in any country can claim to have been wronged by any other at some point in time. Does that allow us to sit back and smirk when some form of revenge takes place? If we use the TWMAR argument, where does it ever stop?
The final sentence: "they wanted to destroy the Emerald Buddha" contains several errors in one short sentence. In fact, this was a total government fabrication reported widely in the media (which again demonstrates the power of the media to control our thinking). Why was this nonsense made up? The first reason is known as: "poisoning the wells".
"Poisoning the wells" is not the same as an ad-hominem attack (which this sentence also contains) because the idea of 'poisoning the well' is not only to discredit the target, but to ensure that any claim or intention stated by the target in future is considered false. In our example case, this works because the Emerald Buddha is a revered building in Thailand and any attack on it would imply terrorism and a hatred of the nation.
The final error I will point out here is the appeal to authority. In the case the authority is the DSI (Department of Special Investigation) who made the claim of the attempted attack on the Emerald Buddha by red shirts. The fallacy goes like this - the DSI are specialists on crime, the DSI make a statement about the red shirts planning crime, so the statement must be true.
OK let me indulge in one more observation. I don't know the name for this error, but it is clear: "Red shirts and yellow shirts are as bad as each other". In short, because they are both political, they are both brightly coloured and both protest. Ergo, they are equally evil. This error of thinking is so obvious when laid out that I surely don't need to explain the poor logic. Yet, we hear such comments every day.
Here's a few other random examples of errors in logic or judgment. In some cases I have given examples and explanations.
1) The appeal to force.
If you don't agree with me, something scary will happen.
"If we don't use ID cards in the UK, then we won't catch terrorists."
2) Euphemisms
In my personal experience, when right wing groups are involved in any kind of conflict, it is "imperialism" "right wing violence" etc. When leftists do it its is "direct action" , "protests" "conflicts with authority" etc.
This works because usage of certain vocabulary can greatly alter our judgment of a situation.
3) Argument to false authority
Do not confuse this with the "argument to authority" which concerns someone who actually has some specialised knowledge on the topic. The false authority does not, though may pretend otherwise.
The head of the IPCC says anthropogenic global warming is real so many people believe it to be so. But this man is a train engineer, why do we allow him to make such a decision for us?
4) Lying or false sources
"The Loch Ness monster is real. It says so on the webssite I read." (that I created myself).
"It's real, I read it on wikipedia."
5) Appeal to personal charm.
"Ahisit and Obama are both young, smart looking and good speakers. Therefore, they are the best people to run their respective countries."
6) Distraction or changing the subject.
Student A: "Did you steal that money from my desk?"
Student B: "You're just saying that because you failed your exam last week!"
7) Appeal by anecdote
A favourite of British politicians and used by all three candidates in the Prime Ministerial debates. Personal anecdotes are effective because they put a personal and often lucid slant on things that can make the argument seem more powerful than it really is.
"A lot of British people are very happy about the ID cards. Last week I met a lovely, sweet elderly lady living in a small cottage who told me she wanted an ID card because....."
In the example above, the little sweet old lady can make us forget that the vast majority of people believe ID cards are wrong.
8) Argument from selective or limited experience
"Most Thai women dress like bar girls. I spent a week on Nana Plaza and that was all I saw" (selective or biased experience)
"Polish people love tennis. I met two Poles last week who bought tickets for Wimbledon" (Limited experience)
9) Weasel wording
http://www.weaselwords.com.au/
10) To be nominated by anyone who cares to do so!
Sunday, 9 May 2010
Reflections on elections
So as the back-room bargaining continues, we can begin to reflect on the election of 2010. So much commentary has - and will continue to be - poured onto the topic that I'd rather sum up my own views with a few bullet points:
1) One year ago David Cameron was the golden boy of UK politics. He was the next Tony Blair, leading the Conservatives to ridiculous leads in every opinion poll in every media channel. That the Conservatives failed to win a clear majority last week is an utter and abysmal failure on behalf of Cameron and his party. No matter how they dress it up, there is no other conclusion that can be made.
2) I worry about people in this country. How can we continue to vote for the two 'big' parties when it's so clear that they have no ideology, no differences and in any case wield no real control over our laws?. What is the point in getting so excited about electing a government that has very little power left in the days of the EU?
3) Just weeks ago, Clegg and Cameron were slinging mud at each other in a desperate bid to finish first in the polls. Two weeks later, they are talking about running the country together. It's all about money and power.
4) Logically, the Lib Dems and Labour should have far more in common than the Tories and Lib Dems. The fact that the latter pair still want to work together should be all the wake up call Conservative voters need.
5) Is it time for proportional representation? UKIP polled over 900,000 votes yet none of those voters will be represented in parliament. The Green Party got around 200,000 votes and have an MP.
I still desperately hope Clegg will make a deal with Labour and that deal will involve a referendum on PR. (A referendum on our sovereignty is out of the question, I gather) I have zero faith in Labour and little in the Lib Dems but if the Tories get what they deserve - a fifth term as opposition - that fallout could finally finish them and allow a real party to take their place.
Whatever happens next, we face tough times with an inexperienced and unstable parliament at the helm. I wish them luck.
1) One year ago David Cameron was the golden boy of UK politics. He was the next Tony Blair, leading the Conservatives to ridiculous leads in every opinion poll in every media channel. That the Conservatives failed to win a clear majority last week is an utter and abysmal failure on behalf of Cameron and his party. No matter how they dress it up, there is no other conclusion that can be made.
2) I worry about people in this country. How can we continue to vote for the two 'big' parties when it's so clear that they have no ideology, no differences and in any case wield no real control over our laws?. What is the point in getting so excited about electing a government that has very little power left in the days of the EU?
3) Just weeks ago, Clegg and Cameron were slinging mud at each other in a desperate bid to finish first in the polls. Two weeks later, they are talking about running the country together. It's all about money and power.
4) Logically, the Lib Dems and Labour should have far more in common than the Tories and Lib Dems. The fact that the latter pair still want to work together should be all the wake up call Conservative voters need.
5) Is it time for proportional representation? UKIP polled over 900,000 votes yet none of those voters will be represented in parliament. The Green Party got around 200,000 votes and have an MP.
I still desperately hope Clegg will make a deal with Labour and that deal will involve a referendum on PR. (A referendum on our sovereignty is out of the question, I gather) I have zero faith in Labour and little in the Lib Dems but if the Tories get what they deserve - a fifth term as opposition - that fallout could finally finish them and allow a real party to take their place.
Whatever happens next, we face tough times with an inexperienced and unstable parliament at the helm. I wish them luck.
Thursday, 15 April 2010
Trouble in Thailand - the complete idiot's guide
Thailand has been in the international spotlight yet again over the last few weeks as the latest round of political violence reached a head. The latest conflict is simply part of a cycle that threatens to continue for some years yet, until certain other events will either quash it, or take it to a whole new level.
Each time the violence is shown on international TV, well-meaning people ask me and my fellow expats: "Are you OK?" or "What exactly is going on over there?". The problem with the second question is that people, understandably, assume that ex-pats out here comprehend what's really happening and can explain it. Sadly this is a faulty assumption. Many expats are as ignorant and blinkered about the situation as anyone else.
Often, expats give the breakdown like this: "Red shirts want Thaksin back. They worship him and come down from the north to Bangkok to protest for a couple of hundred baht (about five dollars) per day." This typical statement has several obvious undertones - all red shirts are poor, weak minded and uneducated puppets. The yellow shirts meanwhile, "hate Thaksin and want to keep him out." This is true in itself, but still lacks great detail.
For those who wanted a little more insight, I will now try to summarise the political situation in Thailand as concisely as possible.
Thaksin Shinwatra came to power in 2001. In his election campaign, he promised to pay attention to the poorer people of Thailand from the northern regions. He pledged village funds, discounted consumer goods and agricultural loans.
Thaksin and his party ("Thai Rak Thai" or "Thais love Thais") won the election by a landslide, partly due to his dynamic campaign and partly due to the weak performance of the preceding Democrat government during the Asian Financial Crisis.
Upon taking office, it was revealed/alleged by the National Counter Corruption Commission that the brand new PM had concealed millions of baht in assets by transferring them to relatives and house workers. Thaksin described it as 'an honest mistake'.
In the build up to his trial, tremendous pressure was placed on the NCCC and Constitutional Court judges. Thaksin would walk to the courts in celebrity style and make grand speeches decrying the courts and implying they were out of touch and undemocratic. He won his case. Years later, one of the judges admitted he had "been placed under tremendous pressure and threats".
Over the next few years Thaksin introduced many schemes such as the 20 baht health care scheme, village banking scheme and the war on drugs. The latter was opened by a remarkable speech but ended in thousands of suspicious deaths, often involving shootouts between police and unproven suspects.
Other problems occurred. Thaksin and his party had such a strong grip on parliament that no real opposition could be mounted. Various laws sailed through the house that involved massive conflicts of interest. Thaksin formed, then dissolved, then formed, then dissolved again a telecommunications watchdog while promoting his very own phone company across the country. He fired the advertisers who had won the contract for the Bangkok Sky Train development project and gave the contract to his own son, he used his position as PM to gain contracts for his own company abroad. Most worryingly, the senate and the Election Commission appeared to offer very little scrutiny of the house. Many senators had the same surnames as members of Thaksin's party.
Media freedom also became a concern. One newspaper that became critical of him found themselves subject to an AMLO investigation.
But none of this was wholly different to previous governments, except in its scope and chokehold on power. Meanwhile, the TRT party took the unique step of actually keeping some pre-election promises. The health-care scheme, the village funding, the loans to farmers were all delivered.
As this happened, some high raking people including the head privy councilor and a former business colleague began to launch vocal attacks on Thaksin, who responded in kind. The ex-colleague formed a group known as the PAD, who later became known simply as the "yellow shirts" and began a public war of words and lawsuits with the PM, followed by street protests.
Initially their protests were peaceful. The PAD were formed mainly from Bangkok people who were more aware of Thaksin's corruption and less beneficial from his policies, that were aimed at the poorer people in the north. The regular Bangkok protests made Thaksin a PM in exile. Eventually, it opened the door for the coup.
Thaksin responded by dissolving parliament and calling an election, but all major parties announced a boycott. When the elections were done, just one single MP who was not from Thai Rak Thai was elected. The situation was described by His Majesty the King as "a mess" and he urged the courts to solve the problem. From that moment on, the courts - particularly the Constitutional Court - made several strong, key verdicts that had a huge effect on the nation.
The coup of 2003 was lead by general Sondhi, one of many officers who had been spurned by Thaksin in military promotions. The junta set up a special panel to investigate alleged corruption by Thaksin and his family and a new government, with a former general as PM, took over the parliament.
The government was, by all accounts, dismal. Their greatest failure was any effort to dispel Thaksin's popularity with the north-eastern people. As the election loomed, a controversial charge was filed against the Thai Rak Thai Party that involved retroactive application of law. The court found the party guilty of vote buying and dissolved the party, banning all executives from politics for ten years.
The response from the TRT party was to use its second string of members as a new executive, and to form a new party. The junta set a date for new elections and introduced a new constitution. The new document was given a lukewarm reception and passed through referendum, though it was rejected in northern provinces.
The new election was billed as the Democrat Party - popular in Bangkok and the south - against the new incarnation of Thaksin's party. The latter won. Samak Suntarajev was the new PM and Thaksin returned to Thai shores, vowing to clear his name.
Perhaps he became overconfident. The courts found his wife guilty of abuse of power and laid new charges against Thaksin. He and his wife jumped bail and left the country again. Shortly after, the second incantation of his part was yet again dissolved by the courts. The banning of executives tipped the balance of parliament and allowed Democrat Aphisit Vejajiva as PM. All this took place while the PAD yellow shirts hit the streets with protests more violent and intimidating than ever before, including the seizure of the airport.
Aphisit worked hard to win favour but those who supported the ousted TRT party formed the 'red shirt' group and began their own protests. During the song kran festivals of 2009, the red shirts were spurned on by calls to 'bring down the elite' and rioted in Bangkok. One big target of their anger was Privy Councilor Prem Timsoland, who had served as chief of the privy council for many years and is considered to be very close to His Majesty The King.
The Aphisit government managed to dispel the protests and the courts began a case against Thaksin to seize assets of his frozen in Thai accounts. The verdict was reached about three months ago and some fifty billion baht of assets were taken from the ex-PM. Soon after, the red shirt groups promised the 'biggest rally ever' which lead to the events of the last few weeks.
There is another, crucial - perhaps the most crucial - aspect to all this that I cannot discuss. Two editions of 'The Economist' were banned from Thailand last year as was a book by Paul Handley for discussing the same sensitive topics. A google search for "Thailand's succession" may provide further research detail in this area.
How this saga will end is both difficult to assess for the reason mentioned above and also depressing to consider, with no end to the polarisation in sight and those in political power seeking only to exploit the situation for their own gain. What is clear however, is that some of the stereotypes and simplifications applied by Thai and foreigners alike to the situation are at best, lazy and, at worse, stupid.
It is true red shirted protesters mostly come from low income areas with lower standards of education. The Oxford University educated Aphisit Vejajiva of the Democrat Party has had over a year to win the hearts and minds of those in the north, and has failed to do so. Many of them want Thaksin back not because they worship him, but because for all his many faults, he actually had some benefit to people who live on sums of cash that many foreigners could never manage to live off, let alone support an entire family. Far from being foolish puppets of propaganda, most red shirts know exactly where their bread is buttered and are fighting for what is best for them, at least in the short term.
Moreover, the reds have a justified complaint. A government elected by a popular democratic vote has been overturned not once, but twice, in highly disputed circumstances. Meanwhile, the ruling Democrat Party were not even charged with a accepting an illegal donation until the same protesters stormed the Election Commission and demanded it happen.
Likewise, the yellow shirt PAD protesters had a full manifesto for change that went well beyond lynching Thaksin. Sadly, that detail was lost in the chaos of the violent actions taken by the group, who went on to form their own political party.
This is the briefest summary possible. Far more people, events and history have gone into making this saga. If you want to learn more, a few of these books may help:
Thaksin - the Business of Politics in Thailand - Pasuk and Baker
The Thaksinization of Thailand - Duncan McCargo
A Coup for the Rich? - Giles Ungpakorn
A political History of Thailand
The King Never Smiles - Paul Handley
Each time the violence is shown on international TV, well-meaning people ask me and my fellow expats: "Are you OK?" or "What exactly is going on over there?". The problem with the second question is that people, understandably, assume that ex-pats out here comprehend what's really happening and can explain it. Sadly this is a faulty assumption. Many expats are as ignorant and blinkered about the situation as anyone else.
Often, expats give the breakdown like this: "Red shirts want Thaksin back. They worship him and come down from the north to Bangkok to protest for a couple of hundred baht (about five dollars) per day." This typical statement has several obvious undertones - all red shirts are poor, weak minded and uneducated puppets. The yellow shirts meanwhile, "hate Thaksin and want to keep him out." This is true in itself, but still lacks great detail.
For those who wanted a little more insight, I will now try to summarise the political situation in Thailand as concisely as possible.
Thaksin Shinwatra came to power in 2001. In his election campaign, he promised to pay attention to the poorer people of Thailand from the northern regions. He pledged village funds, discounted consumer goods and agricultural loans.
Thaksin and his party ("Thai Rak Thai" or "Thais love Thais") won the election by a landslide, partly due to his dynamic campaign and partly due to the weak performance of the preceding Democrat government during the Asian Financial Crisis.
Upon taking office, it was revealed/alleged by the National Counter Corruption Commission that the brand new PM had concealed millions of baht in assets by transferring them to relatives and house workers. Thaksin described it as 'an honest mistake'.
In the build up to his trial, tremendous pressure was placed on the NCCC and Constitutional Court judges. Thaksin would walk to the courts in celebrity style and make grand speeches decrying the courts and implying they were out of touch and undemocratic. He won his case. Years later, one of the judges admitted he had "been placed under tremendous pressure and threats".
Over the next few years Thaksin introduced many schemes such as the 20 baht health care scheme, village banking scheme and the war on drugs. The latter was opened by a remarkable speech but ended in thousands of suspicious deaths, often involving shootouts between police and unproven suspects.
Other problems occurred. Thaksin and his party had such a strong grip on parliament that no real opposition could be mounted. Various laws sailed through the house that involved massive conflicts of interest. Thaksin formed, then dissolved, then formed, then dissolved again a telecommunications watchdog while promoting his very own phone company across the country. He fired the advertisers who had won the contract for the Bangkok Sky Train development project and gave the contract to his own son, he used his position as PM to gain contracts for his own company abroad. Most worryingly, the senate and the Election Commission appeared to offer very little scrutiny of the house. Many senators had the same surnames as members of Thaksin's party.
Media freedom also became a concern. One newspaper that became critical of him found themselves subject to an AMLO investigation.
But none of this was wholly different to previous governments, except in its scope and chokehold on power. Meanwhile, the TRT party took the unique step of actually keeping some pre-election promises. The health-care scheme, the village funding, the loans to farmers were all delivered.
As this happened, some high raking people including the head privy councilor and a former business colleague began to launch vocal attacks on Thaksin, who responded in kind. The ex-colleague formed a group known as the PAD, who later became known simply as the "yellow shirts" and began a public war of words and lawsuits with the PM, followed by street protests.
Initially their protests were peaceful. The PAD were formed mainly from Bangkok people who were more aware of Thaksin's corruption and less beneficial from his policies, that were aimed at the poorer people in the north. The regular Bangkok protests made Thaksin a PM in exile. Eventually, it opened the door for the coup.
Thaksin responded by dissolving parliament and calling an election, but all major parties announced a boycott. When the elections were done, just one single MP who was not from Thai Rak Thai was elected. The situation was described by His Majesty the King as "a mess" and he urged the courts to solve the problem. From that moment on, the courts - particularly the Constitutional Court - made several strong, key verdicts that had a huge effect on the nation.
The coup of 2003 was lead by general Sondhi, one of many officers who had been spurned by Thaksin in military promotions. The junta set up a special panel to investigate alleged corruption by Thaksin and his family and a new government, with a former general as PM, took over the parliament.
The government was, by all accounts, dismal. Their greatest failure was any effort to dispel Thaksin's popularity with the north-eastern people. As the election loomed, a controversial charge was filed against the Thai Rak Thai Party that involved retroactive application of law. The court found the party guilty of vote buying and dissolved the party, banning all executives from politics for ten years.
The response from the TRT party was to use its second string of members as a new executive, and to form a new party. The junta set a date for new elections and introduced a new constitution. The new document was given a lukewarm reception and passed through referendum, though it was rejected in northern provinces.
The new election was billed as the Democrat Party - popular in Bangkok and the south - against the new incarnation of Thaksin's party. The latter won. Samak Suntarajev was the new PM and Thaksin returned to Thai shores, vowing to clear his name.
Perhaps he became overconfident. The courts found his wife guilty of abuse of power and laid new charges against Thaksin. He and his wife jumped bail and left the country again. Shortly after, the second incantation of his part was yet again dissolved by the courts. The banning of executives tipped the balance of parliament and allowed Democrat Aphisit Vejajiva as PM. All this took place while the PAD yellow shirts hit the streets with protests more violent and intimidating than ever before, including the seizure of the airport.
Aphisit worked hard to win favour but those who supported the ousted TRT party formed the 'red shirt' group and began their own protests. During the song kran festivals of 2009, the red shirts were spurned on by calls to 'bring down the elite' and rioted in Bangkok. One big target of their anger was Privy Councilor Prem Timsoland, who had served as chief of the privy council for many years and is considered to be very close to His Majesty The King.
The Aphisit government managed to dispel the protests and the courts began a case against Thaksin to seize assets of his frozen in Thai accounts. The verdict was reached about three months ago and some fifty billion baht of assets were taken from the ex-PM. Soon after, the red shirt groups promised the 'biggest rally ever' which lead to the events of the last few weeks.
There is another, crucial - perhaps the most crucial - aspect to all this that I cannot discuss. Two editions of 'The Economist' were banned from Thailand last year as was a book by Paul Handley for discussing the same sensitive topics. A google search for "Thailand's succession" may provide further research detail in this area.
How this saga will end is both difficult to assess for the reason mentioned above and also depressing to consider, with no end to the polarisation in sight and those in political power seeking only to exploit the situation for their own gain. What is clear however, is that some of the stereotypes and simplifications applied by Thai and foreigners alike to the situation are at best, lazy and, at worse, stupid.
It is true red shirted protesters mostly come from low income areas with lower standards of education. The Oxford University educated Aphisit Vejajiva of the Democrat Party has had over a year to win the hearts and minds of those in the north, and has failed to do so. Many of them want Thaksin back not because they worship him, but because for all his many faults, he actually had some benefit to people who live on sums of cash that many foreigners could never manage to live off, let alone support an entire family. Far from being foolish puppets of propaganda, most red shirts know exactly where their bread is buttered and are fighting for what is best for them, at least in the short term.
Moreover, the reds have a justified complaint. A government elected by a popular democratic vote has been overturned not once, but twice, in highly disputed circumstances. Meanwhile, the ruling Democrat Party were not even charged with a accepting an illegal donation until the same protesters stormed the Election Commission and demanded it happen.
Likewise, the yellow shirt PAD protesters had a full manifesto for change that went well beyond lynching Thaksin. Sadly, that detail was lost in the chaos of the violent actions taken by the group, who went on to form their own political party.
This is the briefest summary possible. Far more people, events and history have gone into making this saga. If you want to learn more, a few of these books may help:
Thaksin - the Business of Politics in Thailand - Pasuk and Baker
The Thaksinization of Thailand - Duncan McCargo
A Coup for the Rich? - Giles Ungpakorn
A political History of Thailand
The King Never Smiles - Paul Handley
Wednesday, 14 April 2010
The real party list
With the election coming up and with the importance of not voting Conservative the overriding factor for people like myself. What are the other options available?
Here's a quick summary of parties that I think are worth the time of day.
UKIP
Good points: Good policies - Nuclear energy, EU referendum, five year freeze on immigration, etc. Are a party most people know about. Already have one MP and several MEPs.
Weak points: Widely believed to have had a few dodgy transactions within the party and new leader Lord Pearson made several expenses claims that, while not illegal, certainly appeared greedy and unnecessary
English Democrats:
Good points: A well known, well designed party. The mayor of Doncaster, Peter Davies is an English Democrat and a living legend.
Weak points: Not a unionist party. Manifesto is somewhat vague.
Popular Alliance:
Good points: The best, most detailed, researched and effective policies you will find in any party, period.
Weak points: We just don't have enough members to make a real impact.
Jury Team:
Good points: Nice website, well designed policies.
Weak points: Policies while good, are brief. The idea and system within the party may confuse some people.
Christian Party:
Good points: A good, well spoken and articulate leader. Excellent policies. Because of the Christian angle, the party actually tries to keep its promises.
Weak points: Being a Christian party obviously limits its appeal.
Traditional Democrats:
Good points: The party website clearly explains the benefit and relevance of conservative policies to a modern Britain.
Weak points: Given that I had to trawl through the Election Commission's party list to find these guys, they don't seem to be very good at promoting themselves.
Other parties worth a look: Veritas, Impact Party, Common Sense Party, Imperial Party.
Remember, the real battle this year is true conservatives against the Conservative Party. It's far more important not to vote for the wrong party as it is to vote for the party that's right for you.
Here's a quick summary of parties that I think are worth the time of day.
UKIP
Good points: Good policies - Nuclear energy, EU referendum, five year freeze on immigration, etc. Are a party most people know about. Already have one MP and several MEPs.
Weak points: Widely believed to have had a few dodgy transactions within the party and new leader Lord Pearson made several expenses claims that, while not illegal, certainly appeared greedy and unnecessary
English Democrats:
Good points: A well known, well designed party. The mayor of Doncaster, Peter Davies is an English Democrat and a living legend.
Weak points: Not a unionist party. Manifesto is somewhat vague.
Popular Alliance:
Good points: The best, most detailed, researched and effective policies you will find in any party, period.
Weak points: We just don't have enough members to make a real impact.
Jury Team:
Good points: Nice website, well designed policies.
Weak points: Policies while good, are brief. The idea and system within the party may confuse some people.
Christian Party:
Good points: A good, well spoken and articulate leader. Excellent policies. Because of the Christian angle, the party actually tries to keep its promises.
Weak points: Being a Christian party obviously limits its appeal.
Traditional Democrats:
Good points: The party website clearly explains the benefit and relevance of conservative policies to a modern Britain.
Weak points: Given that I had to trawl through the Election Commission's party list to find these guys, they don't seem to be very good at promoting themselves.
Other parties worth a look: Veritas, Impact Party, Common Sense Party, Imperial Party.
Remember, the real battle this year is true conservatives against the Conservative Party. It's far more important not to vote for the wrong party as it is to vote for the party that's right for you.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
