Monday, 28 December 2009

My Letter

Published today in the Bangkok Post.

Saturday, 26 December 2009

The alarmists strike back

One of my local newspapers is the Bangkok Post. Today they ran this article as their front page piece.
The article contained the typical alarmist nonsense from some sections of the government  such as:

Weathermen, geo-hazard experts, forest firefighters, and disaster response officials are on high alert as their initial climate analyses show the high possibility of extreme weather events, triggered by global warming, which will become increasingly unpredictable.

These range from droughts, haze, flash floods, mudslides, sinkholes, coastal and river bank erosion, to forest fires..................

The wildfire forecast is based on the US Climate Prediction Centre's detection of an El Nino episode in the Pacific Ocean in August.

The centre reported that the sea surface temperature was 0.7-1.0C above mean level, indicating the development of a moderate El Nino phenomenon.

"El Nino will cause a higher than usual temperature plus less rainfall in the Kingdom in the first half of 2010, increasing the risk of forest fire," the FFCD reported. The division urged authorities to keep updating weather conditions instead of relying on normal climate patterns because "the unprecedented climate and weather fluctuations, resulting from global warming, make it extremely difficult to make long-term weather and wildfire forecasts." ...................
 "What we are most concerned about is the climate variability which causes sudden torrential rain, flash floods, tropical cyclones, and turbulent seas," he said.

"These weather events can strike a certain area within 24 hours, a week, or a month and people must be prepared for them."

People in all regions, except the South, could face extremely hot weather between April and May when the temperature might hit 40C.....................

High temperatures could be accompanied by tropical storms, hail and lightning strikes.

Regarding flooding, Mr Somchai said next year's precipitation rate is expected to be similar to this year's, and flood problems could be solved simply through good water management.

However, areas with more than two days of continuous rain should be prepared for flash floods, he warned.

The department deputy chief said he would like to see better disaster preparedness and response at the community level.

"Villagers, especially in disaster-risk zones, must be trained to protect themselves from natural hazards," he said. "Advanced weather forecast technology or disaster warning systems will be useless, if the locals don't know how to use them to save their communities."

Adichart Surinkum, director of the Mineral Resources Department's geo-hazard operation centre, monitoring geological-related disasters such as earthquakes, mudslides, land erosion and sinkholes, said preparedness was key.

"As natural disasters are increasing while weather conditions become more unpredictable, people's understanding of natural hazards and good disaster preparedness is key to their survival," Mr Adichart said.

At least the same edition also included this letter about climategate. Still, I was so incensed I had to write a letter to the BP once again. If they publish it, I'll link to it and give my sources. If not, I'll publish it here and source it again.

Wednesday, 23 December 2009

A most merry Christmas

I usually turn reflective at this time of year. I talk about hopes and resolutions, I look back on events of the year and end on a positive note.

I don't know why but this year it's not in me. I don't see much hope for UKIP, I don't see any hope that The Tories will lose the election and open the door for true conservatives.

Yet on a personal level it's positive. I've made the Dean's list for the first time n my life, I'm in good health and the family are well.

I'll certainly be enjoying the festive period. I'll be doing it as traditionally as one possibly can in Asia and there will be presents aplenty.

After that though, I'll be looking for signs of hope. For signs that the fight is not yet over, that we can get the heck out of the corrupt and dictatorial EU, that Britain is not drowned under political correctness, that someone can overcome the fake conservatives and that somehow the mess can be undone.

Merry Christmas everyone. Let all of us on the right work together next year. That's our only chance.

Thursday, 17 December 2009

I'm a heretic

The claim that 'Global Warming has become a religion' is one that we seem to be hearing more and more of recently. I'm quite sceptical of this claim, but I must say that this blog entry tempts us to believe that yes, some people are getting religious about this.

Note the tone of the blog. Everything is aggressive, almost fanatical in tone despite the science involved. Note the non-stop scathing of 'deniers'. See the blogger make reference to a documentary that has not been released yet and already declares it to be full of lies and deception.** And most striking of all, the blogger feels the need to give us a clip of mister Tutu discussing global warming.

I can't help but make the comparison to religious fanatics who attack anyone who threatens their belief system, and bury their heads in the sand when any evidence disproving their beliefs is exposed. They will always shout it down as the work of the devil, of liars and deceivers. The burning hatred or bigotry is borne from insecurity.

I left some comments for the blogger and asked a few questions. His reply contained a series of ad hominem attacks. Is this the scientific way?

**Actually I think the blogger is referring to 'Not Evil, Just Wrong' as he links and plays upon this name in his statement. However, this documentary has already premiered, though he states it is in production.

Sunday, 13 December 2009

As Copenhagen rolls on....

OK so I'm probably getting a little lazy, but I'd like to point out an ongoing debate I've had in Ian's blog in Nation Thailand - a newspaper I've had articles published (one on the front page) in before - regarding the evidence for and against Anthropogenic Global Warming. See it here. I point there simply because I've already supplied a large number of relevant links and responded to many of the counter arguments by the: "It's definitely, definitely anthropogenic" crowd.

To summarise my own position, I believe -

1) Some of the temperature increase is down to co2 emitted by human activity but...

2) Most of it is not. The temperature increase due to man will be less than one degree over the next century.

3) The rest is due to various factors, of which I believe the biggest is simply Earth going through a natural cycle following the little ice age.

4) We have to tread very, very carefully with the steps we take to correct this, or we could end up doing more harm than good. It's not as easy as saying: 'reduce carbon emissions'. Where does this leave developing nations? Who will pay for their healthcare and education when we deprive them of one of their few profitable activities?

5) There is a mountain of misinformation, misunderstanding and downright hypocrisy on all sides of the debate.

Also note the list of links I've provided on the side. A good day's reading for anyone.